Predictions › Copa Libertadores › Platense vs Fluminense

Copa LibertadoresTue 15 Sept, 22:00 UTC

Platense vs Fluminense prediction

Ciudad de Vicente López

PlatenseHome

1.09 : 1.18

expected goals

FluminenseAway

33%Platense

30%Draw

37%Fluminense

Eagle safe pickFluminense +0.5

1.44

Quick answer

Our prediction for Platense vs Fluminense is Fluminense to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Fluminense +0.5 at 1.44.

Prediction: Fluminense to win
Chance: 37%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Platense 1.1, Fluminense 1.2
Best bet: Fluminense +0.5 at 1.44
Both teams to score: 47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Fluminense +0.5

66% chancePrice 1.441 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.091 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Platense 33%, the draw 30% and Fluminense 37%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Platense the favourite at 2.70, so take care with this one.
2
Recent form
Platense took 4 points from their last 5 games and Fluminense took 10 from 5. Fluminense come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Platense won 1 of their last 9 games at home. Fluminense won 0 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Platense score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.4. Fluminense score 1.4 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Platense games and 8 of Fluminense games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Platense won 0 and Fluminense won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Fluminense 2, Platense 0.
6
The safest bet
Fluminense +0.5 has a 66% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Platenserecent form-3%
Fluminenserecent form+3%
Platenserest between games-5%
Fluminenserest between games-5%

Platense form L L D L WFluminense form L W W D WHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Platense vs Fluminense: Fluminense shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Platense host Fluminense in the Copa Libertadores on Tue 15 Sept, 22:00 at Ciudad de Vicente López. Our prediction for Platense vs Fluminense is Fluminense to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Fluminense +0.5 at 1.44.

Platense form

Platense have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 5 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, W, newest first.

Fluminense form

Fluminense have 7 wins, 10 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Platense won 0, Fluminense won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Fluminense 2, Platense 0.

Our call

We expect Platense to score about 1.1 goals and Fluminense about 1.2. That points to Fluminense to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Fluminense +0.5 at 1.44. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.09.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Platense	Fluminense
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	7
Draws	6	10
Losses	9	3
Goals scored	21	27
Goals conceded	29	23
Scored per game	1.1	1.4
Conceded per game	1.4	1.1
Home record	1W 5D 3L	7W 4D 0L
Away record	4W 1D 6L	0W 6D 3L
Clean sheets	15%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Platense to win	31%	3.25	2.70	-16.9%
A Draw	29%	3.49	2.95	-15.4%
Fluminense to win	34%	2.91	2.75	-5.6%
Over 2.5 goals	37%	2.72	2.30	-15.5%
Under 2.5 goals	61%	1.64	1.56	-5.1%
Platense -0.5	33%	3.06	2.55	-16.8%
Fluminense +0.5	66%	1.52	1.44	-5.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	67%	1.50
Over 2.5 goals	39%	2.53
Over 3.5 goals	19%	5.17
Both teams to score	47%	2.14
Platense or Draw	63%	1.59
Fluminense or Draw	67%	1.49
Platense to win and Over 2.5	16%	6.23
Fluminense to win and Over 2.5	18%	5.41
Platense clean sheet	31%	3.24
Fluminense clean sheet	34%	2.97

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.1%

0-111.4%

0-011.2%

1-010.5%

1-27.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Platense vs Fluminense?

Our prediction for Platense vs Fluminense is Fluminense to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Fluminense +0.5 at 1.44.

What is the score prediction for Platense vs Fluminense?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Platense to score 1.1 goals and Fluminense 1.2.

Will both teams score in Platense vs Fluminense?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Platense last 20 games and 14 of Fluminense last 20.

How are Platense playing?

How are Fluminense playing?

What happened when Platense and Fluminense last met?

It ended Fluminense 2, Platense 0. In the last 1 meeting Platense won 0 and Fluminense won 1.

What is the best bet for Platense vs Fluminense?

Fluminense +0.5 at 1.44, with a 66% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Platense against Fluminense. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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