Predictions › United Kingdom › Plymouth Argyle vs AFC Wimbledon

League OneSat 10 Oct, 12:30 United Kingdom time

Plymouth Argyle vs AFC Wimbledon prediction

Home Park

Plymouth ArgyleHome

1.80 : 1.09

expected goals

AFC WimbledonAway

53%Plymouth

24%Draw

22%Wimbledon

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

3/10

Quick answer

Our prediction for Plymouth Argyle vs AFC Wimbledon is Plymouth Argyle to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Prediction: Plymouth Argyle to win
Chance: 53%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Plymouth Argyle 1.8, AFC Wimbledon 1.1
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 3/10
Both teams to score: 56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 3/102 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Plymouth Argyle to win and Over 2.5

33% chanceFair price 2/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Plymouth Argyle 53%, the draw 24% and AFC Wimbledon 22%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Plymouth Argyle took 9 points from their last 5 games and AFC Wimbledon took 8 from 5. Plymouth Argyle come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Plymouth Argyle won 6 of their last 11 games at home. AFC Wimbledon won 2 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Plymouth Argyle score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.4. AFC Wimbledon score 0.6 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Plymouth Argyle games and 8 of AFC Wimbledon games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Plymouth Argyle won 1 and AFC Wimbledon won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended AFC Wimbledon 1, Plymouth Argyle 3.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Plymouthrecent form+4%
Wimbledonrecent form+1%

Plymouth form L W W W WWimbledon form D D W W LHome edge in this league 21% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Plymouth Argyle vs AFC Wimbledon: Plymouth Argyle are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Plymouth Argyle host AFC Wimbledon in the League One on Sat 10 Oct, 12:30 at Home Park. Our prediction for Plymouth Argyle vs AFC Wimbledon is Plymouth Argyle to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Plymouth Argyle form

Plymouth Argyle have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, L, newest first.

AFC Wimbledon form

AFC Wimbledon have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 12 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Plymouth Argyle won 1, AFC Wimbledon won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished AFC Wimbledon 1, Plymouth Argyle 3.

Our call

We expect Plymouth Argyle to score about 1.8 goals and AFC Wimbledon about 1.1. That points to Plymouth Argyle to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10. Our bold bet is Plymouth Argyle to win and Over 2.5 at 2/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Plymouth	Wimbledon
Games played	20	20
Wins	11	4
Draws	4	5
Losses	5	11
Goals scored	39	12
Goals conceded	27	34
Scored per game	1.9	0.6
Conceded per game	1.4	1.7
Home record	6W 1D 4L	2W 4D 5L
Away record	5W 3D 1L	2W 1D 6L
Clean sheets	25%	30%
Both teams scored	65%	30%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	79%	1/4
Over 2.5 goals	55%	4/5
Over 3.5 goals	33%	2/1
Both teams to score	56%	4/5
Plymouth Argyle or Draw	78%	2/7
AFC Wimbledon or Draw	47%	11/10
Plymouth Argyle to win and Over 2.5	35%	15/8
AFC Wimbledon to win and Over 2.5	14%	13/2
Plymouth Argyle clean sheet	34%	2/1
AFC Wimbledon clean sheet	17%	5/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.6%

2-19.8%

1-09.3%

2-09.0%

0-06.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Plymouth Argyle vs AFC Wimbledon?

Our prediction for Plymouth Argyle vs AFC Wimbledon is Plymouth Argyle to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

What is the score prediction for Plymouth Argyle vs AFC Wimbledon?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Plymouth Argyle to score 1.8 goals and AFC Wimbledon 1.1.

Will both teams score in Plymouth Argyle vs AFC Wimbledon?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Plymouth Argyle last 20 games and 6 of AFC Wimbledon last 20.

How are Plymouth Argyle playing?

How are AFC Wimbledon playing?

What happened when Plymouth Argyle and AFC Wimbledon last met?

It ended AFC Wimbledon 1, Plymouth Argyle 3. In the last 2 meetings Plymouth Argyle won 1 and AFC Wimbledon won 1.

What is the best bet for Plymouth Argyle vs AFC Wimbledon?

Over 1.5 goals at 3/10, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Plymouth against Wimbledon. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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