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Predictions › United Kingdom › Plymouth Argyle vs Reading
League OneSat 31 Oct, 12:30 United Kingdom time

Plymouth Argyle vs Reading prediction

Home Park

Plymouth ArgyleHome
1.26 : 1.40
expected goals
ReadingAway
33%Plymouth
27%Draw
40%Reading
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1/3

Quick answer

Our prediction for Plymouth Argyle vs Reading is Reading to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

Prediction
Reading to win
Chance
40%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Plymouth Argyle 1.3, Reading 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1/3
Both teams to score
55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1/32 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 13/21 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Plymouth Argyle 33%, the draw 27% and Reading 40%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Plymouth Argyle took 6 points from their last 5 games and Reading took 8 from 5. Reading come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Plymouth Argyle won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Reading won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Plymouth Argyle score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.4. Reading score 1.7 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Plymouth Argyle games and 11 of Reading games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Plymouth Argyle won 0 and Reading won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Reading 2, Plymouth Argyle 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Plymouthrecent form+3%
  • Readingrecent form-1%
  • Plymouthrest between games-5%
Plymouth form D L W W WReading form L L W D DHome edge in this league 21% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Plymouth Argyle vs Reading: Reading shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Plymouth Argyle host Reading in the League One on Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 at Home Park. Our prediction for Plymouth Argyle vs Reading is Reading to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

Plymouth Argyle form

Plymouth Argyle have 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Reading form

Reading have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Plymouth Argyle won 0, Reading won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Reading 2, Plymouth Argyle 2.

Our call

We expect Plymouth Argyle to score about 1.3 goals and Reading about 1.4. That points to Reading to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 13/2.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PlymouthReading
Games played2020
Wins116
Draws36
Losses68
Goals scored3634
Goals conceded2824
Scored per game1.81.7
Conceded per game1.41.2
Home record5W 1D 4L4W 1D 5L
Away record6W 2D 2L2W 5D 3L
Clean sheets25%25%
Both teams scored55%60%
Over 2.5 goals60%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals75%1/3
Over 2.5 goals50%Evens
Over 3.5 goals28%13/5
Both teams to score55%5/6
Plymouth Argyle or Draw60%4/6
Reading or Draw67%1/2
Plymouth Argyle to win and Over 2.519%4/1
Reading to win and Over 2.524%10/3
Plymouth Argyle clean sheet25%3/1
Reading clean sheet28%5/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.1%
0-19.1%
1-28.6%
1-08.1%
2-17.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Plymouth Argyle vs Reading?

Our prediction for Plymouth Argyle vs Reading is Reading to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

What is the score prediction for Plymouth Argyle vs Reading?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Plymouth Argyle to score 1.3 goals and Reading 1.4.

Will both teams score in Plymouth Argyle vs Reading?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Plymouth Argyle last 20 games and 12 of Reading last 20.

How are Plymouth Argyle playing?

Plymouth Argyle have 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Reading playing?

Reading have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, W, newest first.

What happened when Plymouth Argyle and Reading last met?

It ended Reading 2, Plymouth Argyle 2. In the last 2 meetings Plymouth Argyle won 0 and Reading won 1.

What is the best bet for Plymouth Argyle vs Reading?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/3, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Plymouth against Reading. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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