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Predictions › United Kingdom › Portsmouth vs Stoke City
ChampionshipSat 7 Nov, 12:30 United Kingdom time

Portsmouth vs Stoke City prediction

Fratton Park

PortsmouthHome
1.41 : 1.00
expected goals
Stoke CityAway
46%Portsmouth
28%Draw
26%Stoke
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
2/7

Quick answer

Our prediction for Portsmouth vs Stoke City is Portsmouth to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 2/7.

Prediction
Portsmouth to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Portsmouth 1.4, Stoke City 1.0
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 2/7
Both teams to score
48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 2/72 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 13/21 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Portsmouth 46%, the draw 28% and Stoke City 26%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Portsmouth took 10 points from their last 5 games and Stoke City took 10 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Portsmouth won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Stoke City won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Portsmouth score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Stoke City score 1.2 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Portsmouth games and 10 of Stoke City games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Portsmouth won 1 and Stoke City won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Stoke City 1, Portsmouth 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Portsmouthrecent form+1%
  • Stokerecent form+3%
Portsmouth form D D W W LStoke form D W L W WHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Portsmouth vs Stoke City: Portsmouth are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Portsmouth host Stoke City in the Championship on Sat 7 Nov, 12:30 at Fratton Park. Our prediction for Portsmouth vs Stoke City is Portsmouth to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 2/7.

Portsmouth form

Portsmouth have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, L, newest first.

Stoke City form

Stoke City have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Portsmouth won 1, Stoke City won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Stoke City 1, Portsmouth 3.

Our call

We expect Portsmouth to score about 1.4 goals and Stoke City about 1.0. That points to Portsmouth to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 2/7. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 13/2.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PortsmouthStoke
Games played2020
Wins97
Draws54
Losses69
Goals scored2824
Goals conceded2730
Scored per game1.41.2
Conceded per game1.41.5
Home record5W 3D 2L4W 3D 4L
Away record4W 2D 4L3W 1D 5L
Clean sheets30%25%
Both teams scored60%60%
Over 2.5 goals50%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals70%4/9
Over 2.5 goals43%11/8
Over 3.5 goals22%7/2
Both teams to score48%21/20
Portsmouth or Draw74%4/11
Stoke City or Draw54%5/6
Portsmouth to win and Over 2.525%3/1
Stoke City to win and Over 2.513%13/2
Portsmouth clean sheet37%7/4
Stoke City clean sheet24%3/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.4%
1-011.9%
0-09.8%
2-08.9%
2-18.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Portsmouth vs Stoke City?

Our prediction for Portsmouth vs Stoke City is Portsmouth to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 2/7.

What is the score prediction for Portsmouth vs Stoke City?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Portsmouth to score 1.4 goals and Stoke City 1.0.

Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Stoke City?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Portsmouth last 20 games and 12 of Stoke City last 20.

How are Portsmouth playing?

Portsmouth have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Stoke City playing?

Stoke City have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Portsmouth and Stoke City last met?

It ended Stoke City 1, Portsmouth 3. In the last 2 meetings Portsmouth won 1 and Stoke City won 1.

What is the best bet for Portsmouth vs Stoke City?

Under 3.5 goals at 2/7, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Portsmouth against Stoke. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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