EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsBest bets by countryKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaCameroonIvory CoastAll 54 countriesNewsOur recordHow Eagle 2.0 worksResponsible gambling
Predictions › United Kingdom › Portsmouth vs Swansea City
ChampionshipTue 3 Nov, 19:45 United Kingdom time

Portsmouth vs Swansea City prediction

Fratton Park

PortsmouthHome
1.41 : 1.18
expected goals
Swansea CityAway
42%Portsmouth
28%Draw
31%Swansea
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1/3

Quick answer

Our prediction for Portsmouth vs Swansea City is Portsmouth to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

Prediction
Portsmouth to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Portsmouth 1.4, Swansea City 1.2
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1/3
Both teams to score
53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1/32 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 13/21 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Portsmouth 42%, the draw 28% and Swansea City 31%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Portsmouth took 10 points from their last 5 games and Swansea City took 9 from 5. Portsmouth come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Portsmouth won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Swansea City won 6 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Portsmouth score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Swansea City score 1.4 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Portsmouth games and 12 of Swansea City games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Portsmouth won 0 and Swansea City won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Portsmouth 1, Swansea City 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Portsmouthrecent form+1%
  • Swansearecent form+1%
  • Portsmouthrest between games-5%
  • Swansearest between games-5%
Portsmouth form D D W W LSwansea form L L W W WHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Portsmouth vs Swansea City: Portsmouth shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Portsmouth host Swansea City in the Championship on Tue 3 Nov, 19:45 at Fratton Park. Our prediction for Portsmouth vs Swansea City is Portsmouth to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

Portsmouth form

Portsmouth have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, L, newest first.

Swansea City form

Swansea City have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Portsmouth won 0, Swansea City won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Portsmouth 1, Swansea City 2.

Our call

We expect Portsmouth to score about 1.4 goals and Swansea City about 1.2. That points to Portsmouth to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 13/2.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PortsmouthSwansea
Games played2020
Wins910
Draws55
Losses65
Goals scored2829
Goals conceded2724
Scored per game1.41.4
Conceded per game1.41.2
Home record5W 3D 2L4W 3D 3L
Away record4W 2D 4L6W 2D 2L
Clean sheets30%30%
Both teams scored60%55%
Over 2.5 goals50%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals74%4/11
Over 2.5 goals48%11/10
Over 3.5 goals26%11/4
Both teams to score53%10/11
Portsmouth or Draw69%4/9
Swansea City or Draw58%8/11
Portsmouth to win and Over 2.524%3/1
Swansea City to win and Over 2.517%5/1
Portsmouth clean sheet31%9/4
Swansea City clean sheet24%3/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.2%
1-09.9%
2-18.8%
0-08.3%
0-18.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Portsmouth vs Swansea City?

Our prediction for Portsmouth vs Swansea City is Portsmouth to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

What is the score prediction for Portsmouth vs Swansea City?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Portsmouth to score 1.4 goals and Swansea City 1.2.

Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Swansea City?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Portsmouth last 20 games and 11 of Swansea City last 20.

How are Portsmouth playing?

Portsmouth have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Swansea City playing?

Swansea City have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Portsmouth and Swansea City last met?

It ended Portsmouth 1, Swansea City 2. In the last 2 meetings Portsmouth won 0 and Swansea City won 2.

What is the best bet for Portsmouth vs Swansea City?

Under 3.5 goals at 1/3, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Portsmouth against Swansea. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
  • Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.