Predictions › Uruguay › Progreso vs Cerro

Uruguayan Primera DivisionSun 13 Sept, 13:00 Uruguay time

Progreso vs Cerro prediction

Parque Abraham Paladino

ProgresoHome

1.25 : 1.05

expected goals

CerroAway

40%Progreso

30%Draw

30%Cerro

Eagle safe pickUnder 2.5 goals

1.51

Quick answer

Our prediction for Progreso vs Cerro is Progreso to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.51.

Prediction: Progreso to win
Chance: 40%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Progreso 1.3, Cerro 1.1
Best bet: Under 2.5 goals at 1.51
Both teams to score: 47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 2.5 goals

62% chancePrice 1.511 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.171 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Progreso 40%, the draw 30% and Cerro 30%. The bookmakers agree and make Progreso the favourite at 2.35.
2
Recent form
Progreso took 6 points from their last 5 games and Cerro took 10 from 5. Cerro come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Progreso won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Cerro won 2 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Progreso score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.4. Cerro score 0.8 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Progreso games and 7 of Cerro games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Progreso won 2 and Cerro won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Cerro 0, Progreso 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 2.5 goals has a 62% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Progresorecent form-1%
Cerrorecent form+3%

Progreso form W W L L LCerro form W D L W WHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Progreso vs Cerro: Progreso shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Progreso host Cerro in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Sun 13 Sept, 13:00 at Parque Abraham Paladino. Our prediction for Progreso vs Cerro is Progreso to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.51.

Progreso form

Progreso have 5 wins, 2 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Cerro form

Cerro have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Progreso won 2, Cerro won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Cerro 0, Progreso 1.

Our call

We expect Progreso to score about 1.3 goals and Cerro about 1.1. That points to Progreso to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.51. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.17.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Progreso	Cerro
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	8
Draws	2	4
Losses	13	8
Goals scored	15	16
Goals conceded	27	25
Scored per game	0.8	0.8
Conceded per game	1.4	1.3
Home record	3W 1D 5L	6W 1D 2L
Away record	2W 1D 8L	2W 3D 6L
Clean sheets	15%	35%
Both teams scored	40%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	35%	35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Progreso to win	37%	2.72	2.35	-13.7%
A Draw	28%	3.51	3.10	-11.8%
Cerro to win	29%	3.47	3.00	-13.6%
Over 2.5 goals	36%	2.80	2.45	-12.5%
Under 2.5 goals	62%	1.61	1.51	-5.9%
Progreso -0.5	37%	2.72	2.30	-15.5%
Cerro +0.5	61%	1.64	1.54	-6.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	68%	1.48
Over 2.5 goals	40%	2.48
Over 3.5 goals	20%	5.01
Both teams to score	47%	2.13
Progreso or Draw	70%	1.43
Cerro or Draw	60%	1.67
Progreso to win and Over 2.5	20%	4.90
Cerro to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.73
Progreso clean sheet	35%	2.85
Cerro clean sheet	29%	3.48

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.0%

1-011.8%

0-010.9%

0-19.8%

2-18.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Progreso vs Cerro?

Our prediction for Progreso vs Cerro is Progreso to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.51.

What is the score prediction for Progreso vs Cerro?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Progreso to score 1.3 goals and Cerro 1.1.

Will both teams score in Progreso vs Cerro?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Progreso last 20 games and 8 of Cerro last 20.

How are Progreso playing?

How are Cerro playing?

What happened when Progreso and Cerro last met?

It ended Cerro 0, Progreso 1. In the last 2 meetings Progreso won 2 and Cerro won 0.

What is the best bet for Progreso vs Cerro?

Under 2.5 goals at 1.51, with a 62% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Progreso against Cerro. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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