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Predictions › Uruguay › Progreso vs Defensor Sporting
Uruguayan Primera DivisionSun 1 Nov, 13:00 Uruguay time

Progreso vs Defensor Sporting prediction

Parque Abraham Paladino

ProgresoHome
1.23 : 1.15
expected goals
Defensor SportingAway
37%Progreso
29%Draw
34%Defensor
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Progreso vs Defensor Sporting is Progreso to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction
Progreso to win
Chance
37%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Progreso 1.2, Defensor Sporting 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score
49%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 1.282 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.201 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Progreso 37%, the draw 29% and Defensor Sporting 34%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Progreso took 10 points from their last 5 games and Defensor Sporting took 3 from 5. Progreso come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Progreso won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Defensor Sporting won 0 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Progreso score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.4. Defensor Sporting score 0.9 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Progreso games and 9 of Defensor Sporting games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Progreso won 0 and Defensor Sporting won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Defensor Sporting 1, Progreso 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Progresorecent form+1%
  • Defensorrecent form-3%
Progreso form D D L W WDefensor form D L L W LHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Progreso vs Defensor Sporting: Progreso shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Progreso host Defensor Sporting in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Sun 1 Nov, 13:00 at Parque Abraham Paladino. Our prediction for Progreso vs Defensor Sporting is Progreso to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

Progreso form

Progreso have 7 wins, 1 draw and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, W, newest first.

Defensor Sporting form

Defensor Sporting have 3 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Progreso won 0, Defensor Sporting won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Defensor Sporting 1, Progreso 0.

Our call

We expect Progreso to score about 1.2 goals and Defensor Sporting about 1.1. That points to Progreso to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.20.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ProgresoDefensor
Games played2020
Wins73
Draws16
Losses1211
Goals scored1919
Goals conceded2732
Scored per game0.90.9
Conceded per game1.41.6
Home record4W 0D 5L3W 1D 7L
Away record3W 1D 7L0W 5D 4L
Clean sheets20%15%
Both teams scored50%65%
Over 2.5 goals45%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals69%1.44
Over 2.5 goals42%2.36
Over 3.5 goals22%4.62
Both teams to score49%2.04
Progreso or Draw66%1.50
Defensor Sporting or Draw63%1.59
Progreso to win and Over 2.520%5.12
Defensor Sporting to win and Over 2.517%5.72
Progreso clean sheet32%3.16
Defensor Sporting clean sheet29%3.40

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.9%
1-010.6%
0-010.1%
0-19.9%
2-18.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?

Our prediction for Progreso vs Defensor Sporting is Progreso to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Progreso to score 1.2 goals and Defensor Sporting 1.1.

Will both teams score in Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?

Both teams to score has a 49% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Progreso last 20 games and 13 of Defensor Sporting last 20.

How are Progreso playing?

Progreso have 7 wins, 1 draw and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Defensor Sporting playing?

Defensor Sporting have 3 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Progreso and Defensor Sporting last met?

It ended Defensor Sporting 1, Progreso 0. In the last 2 meetings Progreso won 0 and Defensor Sporting won 2.

What is the best bet for Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Progreso against Defensor. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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