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Predictions › Uruguay › Progreso vs Juventud
Uruguayan Primera DivisionSat 17 Oct, 13:00 Uruguay time

Progreso vs Juventud prediction

Parque Abraham Paladino

ProgresoHome
0.95 : 1.50
expected goals
JuventudAway
23%Progreso
28%Draw
49%Juventud
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Progreso vs Juventud is Juventud to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction
Juventud to win
Chance
49%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Progreso 0.9, Juventud 1.5
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score
48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.322 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Juventud to win and Over 2.5
27% chanceFair price 3.721 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Progreso 23%, the draw 28% and Juventud 49%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Progreso took 9 points from their last 5 games and Juventud took 7 from 5. Progreso come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Progreso won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Juventud won 4 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Progreso score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.4. Juventud score 1.3 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Progreso games and 8 of Juventud games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Progreso won 0 and Juventud won 2 with 1 draw. The last one ended Juventud 2, Progreso 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Progresorecent form+1%
  • Juventudrecent form+1%
Progreso form L W W L WJuventud form D D W D DHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Progreso vs Juventud: Juventud are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Progreso host Juventud in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Sat 17 Oct, 13:00 at Parque Abraham Paladino. Our prediction for Progreso vs Juventud is Juventud to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Progreso form

Progreso have 7 wins, 0 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Juventud form

Juventud have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 6 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Progreso won 0, Juventud won 2 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Juventud 2, Progreso 0.

Our call

We expect Progreso to score about 0.9 goals and Juventud about 1.5. That points to Juventud to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Juventud to win and Over 2.5 at 3.72.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ProgresoJuventud
Games played2020
Wins77
Draws09
Losses134
Goals scored1825
Goals conceded2822
Scored per game0.91.3
Conceded per game1.41.1
Home record4W 0D 5L3W 3D 3L
Away record3W 0D 8L4W 6D 1L
Clean sheets15%35%
Both teams scored50%60%
Over 2.5 goals50%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals71%1.41
Over 2.5 goals44%2.26
Over 3.5 goals23%4.31
Both teams to score48%2.06
Progreso or Draw51%1.96
Juventud or Draw77%1.31
Progreso to win and Over 2.512%8.37
Juventud to win and Over 2.527%3.67
Progreso clean sheet22%4.46
Juventud clean sheet38%2.60

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.1%
0-112.2%
0-29.6%
0-09.4%
1-29.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Progreso vs Juventud?

Our prediction for Progreso vs Juventud is Juventud to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Progreso vs Juventud?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-2. We expect Progreso to score 0.9 goals and Juventud 1.5.

Will both teams score in Progreso vs Juventud?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Progreso last 20 games and 12 of Juventud last 20.

How are Progreso playing?

Progreso have 7 wins, 0 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Juventud playing?

Juventud have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 6 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, D, D, newest first.

What happened when Progreso and Juventud last met?

It ended Juventud 2, Progreso 0. In the last 3 meetings Progreso won 0 and Juventud won 2.

What is the best bet for Progreso vs Juventud?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Progreso against Juventud. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
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