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Predictions › Champions League › PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge
Champions LeagueWed 4 Nov, 20:00 UTC

PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge prediction

Philips Stadion

PSV EindhovenHome
2.06 : 1.77
expected goals
Club BruggeAway
45%PSV
22%Draw
33%Club Brugge
Eagle safe pickOver 2.5 goals
1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge is PSV Eindhoven to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction
PSV Eindhoven to win
Chance
45%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
PSV Eindhoven 2.1, Club Brugge 1.8
Best bet
Over 2.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score
73%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 2.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1.331 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

PSV Eindhoven to win and Over 2.5
35% chanceFair price 2.841 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives PSV Eindhoven 45%, the draw 22% and Club Brugge 33%. The bookmakers agree and make PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 2.10.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    PSV Eindhoven took 7 points from their last 5 games and Club Brugge took 15 from 5. Club Brugge come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    PSV Eindhoven won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Club Brugge won 6 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    PSV Eindhoven score 2.7 goals a game and let in 1.3. Club Brugge score 2.9 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of PSV Eindhoven games and 16 of Club Brugge games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 2.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Club Bruggerecent form+6%
  • PSVrest between games-5%
  • Club Bruggerest between games-5%
PSV form D W L L WClub Brugge form D W W W WHome edge in this league 33% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge: PSV Eindhoven shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

PSV Eindhoven host Club Brugge in the Champions League on Wed 4 Nov, 20:00 at Philips Stadion. Our prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge is PSV Eindhoven to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.33.

PSV Eindhoven form

PSV Eindhoven have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 54 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Club Brugge form

Club Brugge have 16 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 57 goals scored and 18 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect PSV Eindhoven to score about 2.1 goals and Club Brugge about 1.8. That points to PSV Eindhoven to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is PSV Eindhoven to win and Over 2.5 at 2.84.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PSVClub Brugge
Games played2020
Wins1216
Draws41
Losses43
Goals scored5457
Goals conceded2618
Scored per game2.72.9
Conceded per game1.30.9
Home record6W 3D 0L10W 0D 1L
Away record6W 1D 4L6W 1D 2L
Clean sheets15%50%
Both teams scored80%50%
Over 2.5 goals70%80%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
PSV Eindhoven to win43%2.302.10-8.9%
A Draw21%4.684.10-12.4%
Club Brugge to win32%3.122.85-8.5%
Over 3.5 goals47%2.111.87-11.2%
Under 3.5 goals47%2.141.83-14.5%
PSV Eindhoven -0.544%2.292.00-12.5%
Club Brugge +0.550%1.991.67-16.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals90%1.11
Over 2.5 goals74%1.36
Over 3.5 goals53%1.88
Both teams to score73%1.37
PSV Eindhoven or Draw67%1.50
Club Brugge or Draw55%1.81
PSV Eindhoven to win and Over 2.536%2.77
Club Brugge to win and Over 2.527%3.77
PSV Eindhoven clean sheet17%5.86
Club Brugge clean sheet13%7.84

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-18.4%
2-18.2%
2-27.2%
1-27.0%
3-15.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge?

Our prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge is PSV Eindhoven to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-2. We expect PSV Eindhoven to score 2.1 goals and Club Brugge 1.8.

Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge?

Both teams to score has a 73% chance. Both sides scored in 16 of PSV Eindhoven last 20 games and 10 of Club Brugge last 20.

How are PSV Eindhoven playing?

PSV Eindhoven have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 54 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Club Brugge playing?

Club Brugge have 16 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 57 goals scored and 18 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge?

Over 2.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in PSV against Club Brugge. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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