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Predictions › Netherlands › PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II
EredivisieSat 31 Oct, 17:45 Netherlands time

PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II prediction

Philips Stadion

PSV EindhovenHome
3.86 : 1.18
expected goals
Willem IIAway
84%PSV
10%Draw
7%Willem II
Eagle safe pickPSV Eindhoven to win
1.20

Quick answer

Our prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II is PSV Eindhoven to win, with a 84% chance. The most likely score is 3-1. Our best bet is PSV Eindhoven to win at 1.20.

Prediction
PSV Eindhoven to win
Chance
84%
Most likely score
3-1
Expected goals
PSV Eindhoven 3.9, Willem II 1.2
Best bet
PSV Eindhoven to win at 1.20
Both teams to score
68%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

PSV Eindhoven to win
83% chanceFair price 1.202 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 3-1
7% chanceFair price 13.641 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives PSV Eindhoven 84%, the draw 10% and Willem II 7%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    PSV Eindhoven took 6 points from their last 5 games and Willem II took 1 from 5. PSV Eindhoven come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    PSV Eindhoven won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Willem II won 0 of their last 5 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    PSV Eindhoven score 2.8 goals a game and let in 1.4. Willem II score 1.0 and let in 2.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of PSV Eindhoven games and 7 of Willem II games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    PSV Eindhoven to win has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • PSVrecent form-3%
  • Willem IIrecent form-4%
  • PSVrest between games-5%
PSV form D L L W LWillem II form D L L L DHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II: PSV Eindhoven are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

PSV Eindhoven host Willem II in the Eredivisie on Sat 31 Oct, 17:45 at Philips Stadion. Our prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II is PSV Eindhoven to win, with a 84% chance. The most likely score is 3-1. Our best bet is PSV Eindhoven to win at 1.20.

PSV Eindhoven form

PSV Eindhoven have 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 55 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Willem II form

Willem II have 0 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 9 games, with 9 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect PSV Eindhoven to score about 3.9 goals and Willem II about 1.2. That points to PSV Eindhoven to win, with 3-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is PSV Eindhoven to win at 1.20. Our bold bet is Correct score 3-1 at 13.64.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PSVWillem II
Games played209
Wins120
Draws32
Losses57
Goals scored559
Goals conceded2826
Scored per game2.81.0
Conceded per game1.42.9
Home record6W 2D 1L0W 1D 3L
Away record6W 1D 4L0W 1D 4L
Clean sheets15%0%
Both teams scored80%78%
Over 2.5 goals75%78%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals96%1.04
Over 2.5 goals88%1.14
Over 3.5 goals74%1.35
Both teams to score68%1.47
PSV Eindhoven or Draw93%1.07
Willem II or Draw16%6.17
PSV Eindhoven to win and Over 2.577%1.30
Willem II to win and Over 2.56%17.94
PSV Eindhoven clean sheet31%3.26
Willem II clean sheet2%47.55

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

3-17.3%
4-17.1%
3-06.2%
4-06.0%
2-15.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?

Our prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II is PSV Eindhoven to win, with a 84% chance. The most likely score is 3-1. Our best bet is PSV Eindhoven to win at 1.20.

What is the score prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?

3-1 is the most likely score, followed by 4-1 and 3-0. We expect PSV Eindhoven to score 3.9 goals and Willem II 1.2.

Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?

Both teams to score has a 68% chance. Both sides scored in 16 of PSV Eindhoven last 20 games and 7 of Willem II last 9.

How are PSV Eindhoven playing?

PSV Eindhoven have 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 55 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Willem II playing?

Willem II have 0 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 9 games, with 9 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?

PSV Eindhoven to win at 1.20, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in PSV against Willem II. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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