Predictions › Mexico › Puebla vs Atlético de San Luis

Liga MXSat 21 Nov, 01:00 Mexico time

Puebla vs Atlético de San Luis prediction

Estadio Cuauhtémoc

PueblaHome

1.20 : 1.64

expected goals

Atlético de San LuisAway

27%Puebla

26%Draw

47%Atl. San Luis

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Puebla vs Atlético de San Luis is Atlético de San Luis to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction: Atlético de San Luis to win
Chance: 47%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Puebla 1.2, Atlético de San Luis 1.6
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score: 57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

78% chanceFair price 1.282 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Atlético de San Luis to win and Over 2.5

30% chanceFair price 3.361 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Puebla 27%, the draw 26% and Atlético de San Luis 47%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Puebla took 4 points from their last 5 games and Atlético de San Luis took 7 from 5. Atlético de San Luis come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Puebla won 1 of their last 9 games at home. Atlético de San Luis won 3 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Puebla score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.6. Atlético de San Luis score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Puebla games and 10 of Atlético de San Luis games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Puebla won 1 and Atlético de San Luis won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Atlético de San Luis 0, Puebla 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Pueblarecent form-3%
Pueblarest between games-2%

Puebla form W L L L DAtl. San Luis form L L W W DHome edge in this league 28% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Puebla vs Atlético de San Luis: Atlético de San Luis are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Puebla host Atlético de San Luis in the Liga MX on Sat 21 Nov, 01:00 at Estadio Cuauhtémoc. Our prediction for Puebla vs Atlético de San Luis is Atlético de San Luis to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Puebla form

Puebla have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, D, newest first.

Atlético de San Luis form

Atlético de San Luis have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Puebla won 1, Atlético de San Luis won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Atlético de San Luis 0, Puebla 1.

Our call

We expect Puebla to score about 1.2 goals and Atlético de San Luis about 1.6. That points to Atlético de San Luis to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Atlético de San Luis to win and Over 2.5 at 3.36.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Puebla	Atl. San Luis
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	6
Draws	4	5
Losses	11	9
Goals scored	21	23
Goals conceded	33	29
Scored per game	1.1	1.1
Conceded per game	1.6	1.4
Home record	1W 3D 5L	3W 2D 6L
Away record	4W 1D 6L	3W 3D 3L
Clean sheets	20%	15%
Both teams scored	55%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	78%	1.28
Over 2.5 goals	54%	1.86
Over 3.5 goals	32%	3.17
Both teams to score	57%	1.76
Puebla or Draw	53%	1.89
Atlético de San Luis or Draw	73%	1.37
Puebla to win and Over 2.5	17%	5.99
Atlético de San Luis to win and Over 2.5	30%	3.32
Puebla clean sheet	19%	5.14
Atlético de San Luis clean sheet	30%	3.31

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.2%

1-29.4%

0-18.9%

0-27.9%

2-16.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Puebla vs Atlético de San Luis?

Our prediction for Puebla vs Atlético de San Luis is Atlético de San Luis to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Puebla vs Atlético de San Luis?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Puebla to score 1.2 goals and Atlético de San Luis 1.6.

Will both teams score in Puebla vs Atlético de San Luis?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Puebla last 20 games and 11 of Atlético de San Luis last 20.

How are Puebla playing?

How are Atlético de San Luis playing?

What happened when Puebla and Atlético de San Luis last met?

It ended Atlético de San Luis 0, Puebla 1. In the last 1 meeting Puebla won 1 and Atlético de San Luis won 0.

What is the best bet for Puebla vs Atlético de San Luis?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Puebla against Atl. San Luis. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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