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Predictions › Mexico › Puebla vs León
Liga MXSat 10 Oct, 01:00 Mexico time

Puebla vs León prediction

Estadio Cuauhtémoc

PueblaHome
1.37 : 1.09
expected goals
LeónAway
42%Puebla
28%Draw
29%León
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Puebla vs León is Puebla to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction
Puebla to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Puebla 1.4, León 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score
50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.322 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.391 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Puebla 42%, the draw 28% and León 29%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Puebla took 4 points from their last 5 games and León took 8 from 5. León come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Puebla won 2 of their last 9 games at home. León won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Puebla score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.4. León score 1.4 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Puebla games and 12 of León games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Puebla won 1 and León won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Puebla 0, León 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Pueblarecent form-3%
  • Leónrecent form+3%
  • Leónrest between games-2%
Puebla form L D L W LLeón form W D W L WHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Puebla vs León: Puebla shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Puebla host León in the Liga MX on Sat 10 Oct, 01:00 at Estadio Cuauhtémoc. Our prediction for Puebla vs León is Puebla to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Puebla form

Puebla have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, L, newest first.

León form

León have 10 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Puebla won 1, León won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Puebla 0, León 1.

Our call

We expect Puebla to score about 1.4 goals and León about 1.1. That points to Puebla to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.39.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PueblaLeón
Games played2020
Wins610
Draws42
Losses108
Goals scored2029
Goals conceded2833
Scored per game1.01.4
Conceded per game1.41.6
Home record2W 4D 3L7W 0D 3L
Away record4W 0D 7L3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets20%25%
Both teams scored55%60%
Over 2.5 goals45%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals71%1.40
Over 2.5 goals45%2.24
Over 3.5 goals23%4.28
Both teams to score50%1.99
Puebla or Draw71%1.41
León or Draw58%1.73
Puebla to win and Over 2.523%4.27
León to win and Over 2.516%6.44
Puebla clean sheet34%2.98
León clean sheet26%3.92

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.5%
1-010.9%
0-09.3%
2-18.7%
0-18.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Puebla vs León?

Our prediction for Puebla vs León is Puebla to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Puebla vs León?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Puebla to score 1.4 goals and León 1.1.

Will both teams score in Puebla vs León?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Puebla last 20 games and 12 of León last 20.

How are Puebla playing?

Puebla have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, L, newest first.

How are León playing?

León have 10 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, D, newest first.

What happened when Puebla and León last met?

It ended Puebla 0, León 1. In the last 2 meetings Puebla won 1 and León won 1.

What is the best bet for Puebla vs León?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Puebla against León. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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