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Predictions › Mexico › Puebla vs Monterrey
Liga MXThu 22 Oct, 01:00 Mexico time

Puebla vs Monterrey prediction

Estadio Cuauhtémoc

PueblaHome
1.35 : 1.24
expected goals
MonterreyAway
39%Puebla
28%Draw
34%Monterrey
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.34

Quick answer

Our prediction for Puebla vs Monterrey is Puebla to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34.

Prediction
Puebla to win
Chance
39%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Puebla 1.4, Monterrey 1.2
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.34
Both teams to score
53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1.341 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.511 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Puebla 39%, the draw 28% and Monterrey 34%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Puebla took 5 points from their last 5 games and Monterrey took 5 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Puebla won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Monterrey won 1 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Puebla score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.4. Monterrey score 1.4 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Puebla games and 12 of Monterrey games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Puebla won 0 and Monterrey won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Monterrey 2, Puebla 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Pueblarecent form-1%
  • Monterreyrecent form-1%
  • Pueblarest between games-2%
  • Monterreyrest between games-5%
Puebla form D L D L WMonterrey form D L W D LHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Puebla vs Monterrey: Puebla shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Puebla host Monterrey in the Liga MX on Thu 22 Oct, 01:00 at Estadio Cuauhtémoc. Our prediction for Puebla vs Monterrey is Puebla to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34.

Puebla form

Puebla have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, W, newest first.

Monterrey form

Monterrey have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Puebla won 0, Monterrey won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Monterrey 2, Puebla 1.

Our call

We expect Puebla to score about 1.4 goals and Monterrey about 1.2. That points to Puebla to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.51.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PueblaMonterrey
Games played2020
Wins55
Draws55
Losses1010
Goals scored2028
Goals conceded2934
Scored per game1.01.4
Conceded per game1.41.7
Home record2W 5D 3L4W 1D 5L
Away record3W 0D 7L1W 4D 5L
Clean sheets15%20%
Both teams scored60%65%
Over 2.5 goals45%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals74%1.36
Over 2.5 goals48%2.09
Over 3.5 goals26%3.83
Both teams to score53%1.87
Puebla or Draw66%1.50
Monterrey or Draw61%1.63
Puebla to win and Over 2.522%4.48
Monterrey to win and Over 2.519%5.21
Puebla clean sheet29%3.46
Monterrey clean sheet26%3.85

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%
1-09.4%
0-18.6%
2-18.5%
0-08.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Puebla vs Monterrey?

Our prediction for Puebla vs Monterrey is Puebla to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34.

What is the score prediction for Puebla vs Monterrey?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-1. We expect Puebla to score 1.4 goals and Monterrey 1.2.

Will both teams score in Puebla vs Monterrey?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Puebla last 20 games and 13 of Monterrey last 20.

How are Puebla playing?

Puebla have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, W, newest first.

How are Monterrey playing?

Monterrey have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Puebla and Monterrey last met?

It ended Monterrey 2, Puebla 1. In the last 1 meeting Puebla won 0 and Monterrey won 1.

What is the best bet for Puebla vs Monterrey?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.34, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Puebla against Monterrey. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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