EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsBest bets by countryKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaCameroonIvory CoastAll 54 countriesNewsOur recordHow Eagle 2.0 worksResponsible gambling
Predictions › Mexico › Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul
Liga MXMon 12 Oct, 01:00 Mexico time

Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul prediction

Estadio Olímpico Universitario

Pumas UNAMHome
1.37 : 1.72
expected goals
Cruz AzulAway
30%UNAM
25%Draw
45%Cruz Azul
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul is Cruz Azul to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction
Cruz Azul to win
Chance
45%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Pumas UNAM 1.4, Cruz Azul 1.7
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score
62%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1.252 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Cruz Azul to win and Over 2.5
30% chanceFair price 3.291 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Pumas UNAM 30%, the draw 25% and Cruz Azul 45%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Pumas UNAM took 4 points from their last 5 games and Cruz Azul took 10 from 5. Cruz Azul come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Pumas UNAM won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Cruz Azul won 5 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Pumas UNAM score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.4. Cruz Azul score 1.8 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Pumas UNAM games and 12 of Cruz Azul games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, Pumas UNAM won 1 and Cruz Azul won 1 with 2 draws. The last one ended Pumas UNAM 1, Cruz Azul 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • UNAMrecent form-3%
UNAM form L D L W LCruz Azul form D L L W WHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul: Cruz Azul are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Pumas UNAM host Cruz Azul in the Liga MX on Mon 12 Oct, 01:00 at Estadio Olímpico Universitario. Our prediction for Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul is Cruz Azul to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Pumas UNAM form

Pumas UNAM have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, L, newest first.

Cruz Azul form

Cruz Azul have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. Pumas UNAM won 1, Cruz Azul won 1 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Pumas UNAM 1, Cruz Azul 2.

Our call

We expect Pumas UNAM to score about 1.4 goals and Cruz Azul about 1.7. That points to Cruz Azul to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Cruz Azul to win and Over 2.5 at 3.29.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

UNAMCruz Azul
Games played2020
Wins810
Draws66
Losses64
Goals scored3336
Goals conceded2828
Scored per game1.61.8
Conceded per game1.41.4
Home record4W 3D 3L5W 5D 2L
Away record4W 3D 3L5W 1D 2L
Clean sheets25%15%
Both teams scored55%75%
Over 2.5 goals55%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals82%1.22
Over 2.5 goals60%1.68
Over 3.5 goals37%2.68
Both teams to score62%1.62
Pumas UNAM or Draw55%1.82
Cruz Azul or Draw70%1.43
Pumas UNAM to win and Over 2.520%4.96
Cruz Azul to win and Over 2.531%3.20
Pumas UNAM clean sheet18%5.58
Cruz Azul clean sheet25%3.94

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.4%
1-29.2%
2-17.3%
0-17.2%
0-26.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul?

Our prediction for Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul is Cruz Azul to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Pumas UNAM to score 1.4 goals and Cruz Azul 1.7.

Will both teams score in Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul?

Both teams to score has a 62% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Pumas UNAM last 20 games and 15 of Cruz Azul last 20.

How are Pumas UNAM playing?

Pumas UNAM have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Cruz Azul playing?

Cruz Azul have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Pumas UNAM and Cruz Azul last met?

It ended Pumas UNAM 1, Cruz Azul 2. In the last 4 meetings Pumas UNAM won 1 and Cruz Azul won 1.

What is the best bet for Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in UNAM against Cruz Azul. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
  • Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.