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Predictions › United Kingdom › Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County
ChampionshipWed 14 Oct, 19:45 United Kingdom time

Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County prediction

MATRADE Loftus Road

Queens Park RangersHome
1.49 : 1.54
expected goals
Derby CountyAway
36%QPR
25%Draw
38%Derby
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
2/7

Quick answer

Our prediction for Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County is Derby County to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

Prediction
Derby County to win
Chance
38%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Queens Park Rangers 1.5, Derby County 1.5
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 2/7
Both teams to score
62%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 2/72 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Derby County to win and Over 2.5
25% chanceFair price 3/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Queens Park Rangers 36%, the draw 25% and Derby County 38%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Queens Park Rangers took 6 points from their last 5 games and Derby County took 4 from 5. Queens Park Rangers come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Queens Park Rangers won 3 of their last 11 games at home. Derby County won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Queens Park Rangers score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.4. Derby County score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Queens Park Rangers games and 12 of Derby County games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Queens Park Rangers won 0 and Derby County won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Queens Park Rangers 2, Derby County 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Derbyrecent form-3%
QPR form D D D L WDerby form D L L L WHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County: Derby County shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Queens Park Rangers host Derby County in the Championship on Wed 14 Oct, 19:45 at MATRADE Loftus Road. Our prediction for Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County is Derby County to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

Queens Park Rangers form

Queens Park Rangers have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, L, W, newest first.

Derby County form

Derby County have 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Queens Park Rangers won 0, Derby County won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Queens Park Rangers 2, Derby County 3.

Our call

We expect Queens Park Rangers to score about 1.5 goals and Derby County about 1.5. That points to Derby County to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7. Our bold bet is Derby County to win and Over 2.5 at 3/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

QPRDerby
Games played2020
Wins67
Draws72
Losses711
Goals scored2623
Goals conceded2729
Scored per game1.31.1
Conceded per game1.41.4
Home record3W 4D 4L4W 1D 5L
Away record3W 3D 3L3W 1D 6L
Clean sheets15%25%
Both teams scored60%55%
Over 2.5 goals55%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals81%2/9
Over 2.5 goals59%8/11
Over 3.5 goals36%7/4
Both teams to score62%8/13
Queens Park Rangers or Draw62%8/13
Derby County or Draw64%4/7
Queens Park Rangers to win and Over 2.524%3/1
Derby County to win and Over 2.526%11/4
Queens Park Rangers clean sheet21%7/2
Derby County clean sheet22%7/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.7%
1-28.5%
2-18.3%
0-16.7%
1-06.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County?

Our prediction for Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County is Derby County to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

What is the score prediction for Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Queens Park Rangers to score 1.5 goals and Derby County 1.5.

Will both teams score in Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County?

Both teams to score has a 62% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Queens Park Rangers last 20 games and 11 of Derby County last 20.

How are Queens Park Rangers playing?

Queens Park Rangers have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, L, W, newest first.

How are Derby County playing?

Derby County have 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Queens Park Rangers and Derby County last met?

It ended Queens Park Rangers 2, Derby County 3. In the last 2 meetings Queens Park Rangers won 0 and Derby County won 2.

What is the best bet for Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County?

Over 1.5 goals at 2/7, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in QPR against Derby. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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