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Predictions › Argentina › Racing Club vs Independiente
Argentina Liga ProfesionalSun 18 Oct, 17:45 Argentina time

Racing Club vs Independiente prediction

Presidente Perón (Cilindro de Avellaneda)

Racing ClubHome
1.04 : 1.32
expected goals
IndependienteAway
29%Racing
29%Draw
42%Independiente
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Racing Club vs Independiente is Independiente to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Independiente to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Racing Club 1.0, Independiente 1.3
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.281 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Racing Club 29%, the draw 29% and Independiente 42%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Racing Club took 6 points from their last 5 games and Independiente took 7 from 5. Independiente come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Racing Club won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Independiente won 5 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Racing Club score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.3. Independiente score 1.3 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Racing Club games and 10 of Independiente games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Racing Club won 0 and Independiente won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Independiente 1, Racing Club 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Racing recent form-1%
Racing form W L W L LIndependiente form L W D W LHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Racing Club vs Independiente: Independiente shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Racing Club host Independiente in the Argentina Liga Profesional on Sun 18 Oct, 17:45 at Presidente Perón (Cilindro de Avellaneda). Our prediction for Racing Club vs Independiente is Independiente to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Racing Club form

Racing Club have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Independiente form

Independiente have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Racing Club won 0, Independiente won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Independiente 1, Racing Club 0.

Our call

We expect Racing Club to score about 1.0 goals and Independiente about 1.3. That points to Independiente to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.28.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Racing Independiente
Games played2020
Wins68
Draws54
Losses98
Goals scored2125
Goals conceded2528
Scored per game1.11.3
Conceded per game1.31.4
Home record3W 3D 4L3W 3D 4L
Away record3W 2D 5L5W 1D 4L
Clean sheets20%25%
Both teams scored65%55%
Over 2.5 goals50%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals69%1.45
Over 2.5 goals42%2.38
Over 3.5 goals21%4.68
Both teams to score48%2.07
Racing Club or Draw58%1.73
Independiente or Draw71%1.40
Racing Club to win and Over 2.515%6.86
Independiente to win and Over 2.522%4.49
Racing Club clean sheet27%3.74
Independiente clean sheet35%2.84

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.7%
0-111.6%
0-010.2%
1-09.0%
1-28.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Racing Club vs Independiente?

Our prediction for Racing Club vs Independiente is Independiente to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Racing Club vs Independiente?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Racing Club to score 1.0 goals and Independiente 1.3.

Will both teams score in Racing Club vs Independiente?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Racing Club last 20 games and 11 of Independiente last 20.

How are Racing Club playing?

Racing Club have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Independiente playing?

Independiente have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Racing Club and Independiente last met?

It ended Independiente 1, Racing Club 0. In the last 2 meetings Racing Club won 0 and Independiente won 1.

What is the best bet for Racing Club vs Independiente?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.31, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Racing against Independiente. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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