Predictions › Uruguay › Racing (Montevideo) vs Peñarol

Uruguayan Primera DivisionSun 4 Oct, 22:30 Uruguay time

Racing (Montevideo) vs Peñarol prediction

Estadio Centenario

Racing (Montevideo)Home

0.79 : 1.05

expected goals

PeñarolAway

26%Racing (M)

34%Draw

40%Peñarol

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.16

Quick answer

Our prediction for Racing (Montevideo) vs Peñarol is Peñarol to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.16.

Prediction: Peñarol to win
Chance: 40%
Most likely score: 0-0
Expected goals: Racing (Montevideo) 0.8, Peñarol 1.1
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.16
Both teams to score: 36%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

86% chanceFair price 1.162 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 0-0

17% chanceFair price 5.981 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Racing (Montevideo) 26%, the draw 34% and Peñarol 40%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Racing (Montevideo) took 7 points from their last 5 games and Peñarol took 12 from 5. Peñarol come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Racing (Montevideo) won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Peñarol won 5 of their last 8 on the road.
4
Goals
Racing (Montevideo) score 0.9 goals a game and let in 0.8. Peñarol score 1.8 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Racing (Montevideo) games and 10 of Peñarol games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Racing (Montevideo) won 1 and Peñarol won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Racing (Montevideo) 1, Peñarol 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 86% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Peñarolrecent form+4%
Racing (M)rest between games-5%
Peñarolrest between games-5%

Racing (M) form L D W L WPeñarol form W W W W LHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Racing (Montevideo) vs Peñarol: Peñarol shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Racing (Montevideo) host Peñarol in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Sun 4 Oct, 22:30 at Estadio Centenario. Our prediction for Racing (Montevideo) vs Peñarol is Peñarol to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.16.

Racing (Montevideo) form

Racing (Montevideo) have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, W, newest first.

Peñarol form

Peñarol have 12 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 15 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Racing (Montevideo) won 1, Peñarol won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Racing (Montevideo) 1, Peñarol 1.

Our call

We expect Racing (Montevideo) to score about 0.8 goals and Peñarol about 1.1. That points to Peñarol to win, with 0-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.16. Our bold bet is Correct score 0-0 at 5.98.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Racing (M)	Peñarol
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	12
Draws	9	5
Losses	4	3
Goals scored	18	36
Goals conceded	15	15
Scored per game	0.9	1.8
Conceded per game	0.8	0.8
Home record	5W 4D 0L	7W 2D 3L
Away record	2W 5D 4L	5W 3D 0L
Clean sheets	45%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	20%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	56%	1.80
Over 2.5 goals	28%	3.58
Over 3.5 goals	11%	8.72
Both teams to score	36%	2.76
Racing (Montevideo) or Draw	60%	1.67
Peñarol or Draw	74%	1.35
Racing (Montevideo) to win and Over 2.5	9%	10.65
Peñarol to win and Over 2.5	16%	6.43
Racing (Montevideo) clean sheet	35%	2.86
Peñarol clean sheet	46%	2.20

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-016.7%

0-115.9%

1-114.0%

1-011.7%

0-28.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Racing (Montevideo) vs Peñarol?

Our prediction for Racing (Montevideo) vs Peñarol is Peñarol to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.16.

What is the score prediction for Racing (Montevideo) vs Peñarol?

0-0 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-1. We expect Racing (Montevideo) to score 0.8 goals and Peñarol 1.1.

Will both teams score in Racing (Montevideo) vs Peñarol?

Both teams to score has a 36% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Racing (Montevideo) last 20 games and 11 of Peñarol last 20.

How are Racing (Montevideo) playing?

How are Peñarol playing?

What happened when Racing (Montevideo) and Peñarol last met?

It ended Racing (Montevideo) 1, Peñarol 1. In the last 2 meetings Racing (Montevideo) won 1 and Peñarol won 0.

What is the best bet for Racing (Montevideo) vs Peñarol?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.16, with a 86% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Racing (M) against Peñarol. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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