Predictions › Spain › Racing Santander vs Espanyol
LaLigaSat 24 Oct, 14:15 Spain time

Racing Santander vs Espanyol prediction

El Sardineros

Racing SantanderHome
1.56 : 1.39
expected goals
EspanyolAway
41%Racing
26%Draw
33%Espanyol
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Racing Santander vs Espanyol is Racing Santander to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction
Racing Santander to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Racing Santander 1.6, Espanyol 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 1.282 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Racing Santander to win and Over 2.5
25% chanceFair price 3.981 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Racing Santander 41%, the draw 26% and Espanyol 33%. The bookmakers agree and make Racing Santander the favourite at 2.35.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Racing Santander took 4 points from their last 5 games and Espanyol took 5 from 5. Espanyol come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Racing Santander won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Espanyol won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Racing Santander score 2.0 goals a game and let in 2.2. Espanyol score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 16 of Racing Santander games and 10 of Espanyol games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Racingrecent form-3%
  • Espanyolrecent form-1%
  • Racingrest between games-2%
Racing form D L L W LEspanyol form D L L W DHome edge in this league 35% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Racing Santander vs Espanyol: Racing Santander shade it

The big picture

Racing Santander host Espanyol in the LaLiga on Sat 24 Oct, 14:15 at El Sardineros. Our prediction for Racing Santander vs Espanyol is Racing Santander to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Racing Santander form

Racing Santander have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 44 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Espanyol form

Espanyol have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Racing Santander to score about 1.6 goals and Espanyol about 1.4. That points to Racing Santander to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Racing Santander to win and Over 2.5 at 3.98.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

RacingEspanyol
Games played2020
Wins94
Draws46
Losses710
Goals scored4121
Goals conceded4427
Scored per game2.01.1
Conceded per game2.21.4
Home record7W 2D 1L2W 4D 4L
Away record2W 2D 6L2W 2D 6L
Clean sheets5%25%
Both teams scored75%65%
Over 2.5 goals80%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Racing Santander to win41%2.442.35-3.5%
A Draw24%4.143.55-14.2%
Espanyol to win32%3.152.75-12.7%
Over 2.5 goals52%1.921.69-11.9%
Under 2.5 goals44%2.292.10-8.3%
Racing Santander -0.541%2.422.20-9.1%
Espanyol +0.554%1.841.54-16.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1.25
Over 2.5 goals56%1.77
Over 3.5 goals34%2.93
Both teams to score60%1.67
Racing Santander or Draw67%1.50
Espanyol or Draw59%1.69
Racing Santander to win and Over 2.527%3.71
Espanyol to win and Over 2.522%4.61
Racing Santander clean sheet25%4.01
Espanyol clean sheet21%4.75

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.0%
2-18.8%
1-27.9%
1-07.5%
0-16.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Questions people ask

Who will win Racing Santander vs Espanyol?

Our prediction for Racing Santander vs Espanyol is Racing Santander to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Racing Santander vs Espanyol?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Racing Santander to score 1.6 goals and Espanyol 1.4.

Will both teams score in Racing Santander vs Espanyol?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Racing Santander last 20 games and 13 of Espanyol last 20.

How are Racing Santander playing?

Racing Santander have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 44 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Espanyol playing?

Espanyol have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Racing Santander vs Espanyol?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Racing against Espanyol. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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