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Predictions › Spain › Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club
LaLigaSat 10 Oct, 12:00 Spain time

Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club prediction

Estadio de Vallecas

Rayo VallecanoHome
1.39 : 1.29
expected goals
Athletic ClubAway
39%Rayo
27%Draw
34%Athletic
Eagle value pickRayo Vallecano to win
2.90

Quick answer

Our prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club is Rayo Vallecano to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Rayo Vallecano to win at 2.90.

Prediction
Rayo Vallecano to win
Chance
39%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Rayo Vallecano 1.4, Athletic Club 1.3
Best bet
Rayo Vallecano to win at 2.90
Both teams to score
55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1.332 units
★

Eagle value pick

Rayo Vallecano to win
36% chancePrice 2.90+4.8% value2 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.671 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Rayo Vallecano 39%, the draw 27% and Athletic Club 34%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Athletic Club the favourite at 2.30, so take care with this one.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Rayo Vallecano took 7 points from their last 5 games and Athletic Club took 8 from 5. Athletic Club come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Rayo Vallecano won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Athletic Club won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Rayo Vallecano score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Athletic Club score 1.1 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Rayo Vallecano games and 9 of Athletic Club games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Rayo Vallecano won 0 and Athletic Club won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Rayo Vallecano 1, Athletic Club 1.

  6. 6
    Where the value is

    Rayo Vallecano to win is priced at 2.90. Our fair price is 2.77, so the bookmaker pays about 4.8% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Athleticrecent form+1%
Rayo form D W L W LAthletic form D D W W LHome edge in this league 35% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club: Rayo Vallecano shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Rayo Vallecano host Athletic Club in the LaLiga on Sat 10 Oct, 12:00 at Estadio de Vallecas. Our prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club is Rayo Vallecano to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Rayo Vallecano to win at 2.90.

Rayo Vallecano form

Rayo Vallecano have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Athletic Club form

Athletic Club have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Rayo Vallecano won 0, Athletic Club won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Rayo Vallecano 1, Athletic Club 1.

Our call

We expect Rayo Vallecano to score about 1.4 goals and Athletic Club about 1.3. That points to Rayo Vallecano to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33. Our value bet is Rayo Vallecano to win at 2.90. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.67.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

RayoAthletic
Games played2020
Wins96
Draws54
Losses610
Goals scored2923
Goals conceded2930
Scored per game1.41.1
Conceded per game1.41.5
Home record6W 3D 0L4W 3D 4L
Away record3W 2D 6L2W 1D 6L
Clean sheets30%20%
Both teams scored60%50%
Over 2.5 goals50%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Rayo Vallecano to win36%2.772.90+4.8%
A Draw27%3.763.40-9.6%
Athletic Club to win32%3.092.30-25.5%
Over 2.5 goals47%2.121.83-13.4%
Under 2.5 goals47%2.151.87-13.0%
Rayo Vallecano +0.557%1.741.56-10.6%
Athletic Club -0.537%2.712.15-20.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals75%1.32
Over 2.5 goals50%2.00
Over 3.5 goals28%3.55
Both teams to score55%1.81
Rayo Vallecano or Draw66%1.52
Athletic Club or Draw61%1.63
Rayo Vallecano to win and Over 2.523%4.31
Athletic Club to win and Over 2.520%4.95
Rayo Vallecano clean sheet28%3.63
Athletic Club clean sheet25%4.01

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.0%
1-08.8%
2-18.5%
0-18.1%
1-27.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club?

Our prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club is Rayo Vallecano to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Rayo Vallecano to win at 2.90.

What is the score prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Rayo Vallecano to score 1.4 goals and Athletic Club 1.3.

Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Rayo Vallecano last 20 games and 10 of Athletic Club last 20.

How are Rayo Vallecano playing?

Rayo Vallecano have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Athletic Club playing?

Athletic Club have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Club last met?

It ended Rayo Vallecano 1, Athletic Club 1. In the last 1 meeting Rayo Vallecano won 0 and Athletic Club won 0.

What is the best bet for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club?

Rayo Vallecano to win at 2.90, with a 36% chance. That price pays about 4.8% more than our fair price.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Rayo against Athletic. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
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