Predictions › Spain › Rayo Vallecano vs Elche

LaLigaSat 24 Oct, 12:00 Spain time

Rayo Vallecano vs Elche prediction

Estadio de Vallecas

Rayo VallecanoHome

1.71 : 1.01

expected goals

ElcheAway

53%Rayo

25%Draw

22%Elche

Eagle safe pickRayo Vallecano or Draw

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche is Rayo Vallecano to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Rayo Vallecano or Draw at 1.30.

Prediction: Rayo Vallecano to win
Chance: 53%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Rayo Vallecano 1.7, Elche 1.0
Best bet: Rayo Vallecano or Draw at 1.30
Both teams to score: 53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Rayo Vallecano or Draw

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Rayo Vallecano to win and Over 2.5

31% chanceFair price 3.211 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Rayo Vallecano 53%, the draw 25% and Elche 22%. The bookmakers agree and make Rayo Vallecano the favourite at 1.74.
2
Recent form
Rayo Vallecano took 7 points from their last 5 games and Elche took 5 from 5. Rayo Vallecano come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Rayo Vallecano won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Elche won 2 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Rayo Vallecano score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Elche score 1.3 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Rayo Vallecano games and 12 of Elche games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Rayo Vallecano won 1 and Elche won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Rayo Vallecano 1, Elche 0.
6
The safest bet
Rayo Vallecano or Draw has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Elcherecent form-1%
Rayorest between games-3%

Rayo form D W L W LElche form D W L D LHome edge in this league 35% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Rayo Vallecano vs Elche: Rayo Vallecano are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Rayo Vallecano host Elche in the LaLiga on Sat 24 Oct, 12:00 at Estadio de Vallecas. Our prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche is Rayo Vallecano to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Rayo Vallecano or Draw at 1.30.

Rayo Vallecano form

Rayo Vallecano have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Elche form

Elche have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Rayo Vallecano won 1, Elche won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Rayo Vallecano 1, Elche 0.

Our call

We expect Rayo Vallecano to score about 1.7 goals and Elche about 1.0. That points to Rayo Vallecano to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Rayo Vallecano or Draw at 1.30. Our bold bet is Rayo Vallecano to win and Over 2.5 at 3.21.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Rayo	Elche
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	6
Draws	5	5
Losses	6	9
Goals scored	29	26
Goals conceded	29	35
Scored per game	1.4	1.3
Conceded per game	1.4	1.8
Home record	6W 3D 0L	4W 2D 3L
Away record	3W 2D 6L	2W 3D 6L
Clean sheets	30%	15%
Both teams scored	60%	75%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Rayo Vallecano to win	50%	1.99	1.74	-12.6%
A Draw	24%	4.22	3.70	-12.3%
Elche to win	21%	4.88	4.40	-9.8%
Over 2.5 goals	49%	2.04	1.80	-11.9%
Under 2.5 goals	47%	2.13	1.91	-10.5%
Rayo Vallecano -0.5	51%	1.98	1.67	-15.6%
Elche +0.5	45%	2.21	1.95	-11.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	76%	1.31
Over 2.5 goals	51%	1.95
Over 3.5 goals	29%	3.43
Both teams to score	53%	1.89
Rayo Vallecano or Draw	78%	1.28
Elche or Draw	47%	2.13
Rayo Vallecano to win and Over 2.5	33%	3.04
Elche to win and Over 2.5	12%	8.12
Rayo Vallecano clean sheet	36%	2.75
Elche clean sheet	18%	5.54

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.0%

1-010.5%

2-19.7%

2-09.6%

0-07.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?

Our prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche is Rayo Vallecano to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Rayo Vallecano or Draw at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Rayo Vallecano to score 1.7 goals and Elche 1.0.

Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Rayo Vallecano last 20 games and 15 of Elche last 20.

How are Rayo Vallecano playing?

How are Elche playing?

What happened when Rayo Vallecano and Elche last met?

It ended Rayo Vallecano 1, Elche 0. In the last 2 meetings Rayo Vallecano won 1 and Elche won 1.

What is the best bet for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?

Rayo Vallecano or Draw at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Rayo against Elche. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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