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Predictions › Champions League › RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven
Champions LeagueTue 13 Oct, 19:00 UTC

RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven prediction

Red Bull Arena

RB LeipzigHome
1.97 : 1.63
expected goals
PSV EindhovenAway
45%RB Leipzig
23%Draw
32%PSV
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven is RB Leipzig to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

Prediction
RB Leipzig to win
Chance
45%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
RB Leipzig 2.0, PSV Eindhoven 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.17
Both teams to score
70%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
86% chanceFair price 1.172 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

RB Leipzig to win and Over 2.5
34% chanceFair price 2.941 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives RB Leipzig 45%, the draw 23% and PSV Eindhoven 32%. The bookmakers agree and make RB Leipzig the favourite at 2.00.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    RB Leipzig took 6 points from their last 5 games and PSV Eindhoven took 10 from 5. PSV Eindhoven come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    RB Leipzig won 7 of their last 10 games at home. PSV Eindhoven won 6 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    RB Leipzig score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.6. PSV Eindhoven score 3.0 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 17 of RB Leipzig games and 18 of PSV Eindhoven games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 86% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • RB Leipzigrecent form-1%
  • PSVrecent form+3%
RB Leipzig form L W L L WPSV form L W D W WHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven: RB Leipzig are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

RB Leipzig host PSV Eindhoven in the Champions League on Tue 13 Oct, 19:00 at Red Bull Arena. Our prediction for RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven is RB Leipzig to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

RB Leipzig form

RB Leipzig have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, W, newest first.

PSV Eindhoven form

PSV Eindhoven have 13 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 60 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect RB Leipzig to score about 2.0 goals and PSV Eindhoven about 1.6. That points to RB Leipzig to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17. Our bold bet is RB Leipzig to win and Over 2.5 at 2.94.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

RB LeipzigPSV
Games played2020
Wins1113
Draws23
Losses74
Goals scored3960
Goals conceded3130
Scored per game1.93.0
Conceded per game1.61.5
Home record7W 2D 1L7W 2D 1L
Away record4W 0D 6L6W 1D 3L
Clean sheets20%5%
Both teams scored70%95%
Over 2.5 goals85%90%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
RB Leipzig to win43%2.322.00-13.8%
A Draw22%4.494.00-10.8%
PSV Eindhoven to win31%3.213.10-3.4%
Over 3.5 goals45%2.211.95-11.5%
Under 3.5 goals49%2.021.77-12.5%
RB Leipzig -0.545%2.241.91-14.9%
PSV Eindhoven +0.550%1.991.74-12.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals88%1.14
Over 2.5 goals70%1.44
Over 3.5 goals48%2.07
Both teams to score70%1.43
RB Leipzig or Draw68%1.47
PSV Eindhoven or Draw55%1.83
RB Leipzig to win and Over 2.535%2.84
PSV Eindhoven to win and Over 2.524%4.12
RB Leipzig clean sheet20%5.11
PSV Eindhoven clean sheet14%7.14

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-19.3%
2-18.6%
1-27.2%
2-27.0%
3-15.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven?

Our prediction for RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven is RB Leipzig to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect RB Leipzig to score 2.0 goals and PSV Eindhoven 1.6.

Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven?

Both teams to score has a 70% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of RB Leipzig last 20 games and 19 of PSV Eindhoven last 20.

How are RB Leipzig playing?

RB Leipzig have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, W, newest first.

How are PSV Eindhoven playing?

PSV Eindhoven have 13 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 60 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.17, with a 86% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in RB Leipzig against PSV. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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