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Predictions › Germany › RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg
BundesligaSat 24 Oct, 13:30 Germany time

RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg prediction

Red Bull Arena

RB LeipzigHome
2.68 : 1.15
expected goals
SV ElversbergAway
69%RB Leipzig
17%Draw
14%Elversberg
Eagle safe pickRB Leipzig or Draw
1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg is RB Leipzig to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is RB Leipzig or Draw at 1.18.

Prediction
RB Leipzig to win
Chance
69%
Most likely score
2-1
Expected goals
RB Leipzig 2.7, SV Elversberg 1.1
Best bet
RB Leipzig or Draw at 1.18
Both teams to score
64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

RB Leipzig or Draw
85% chanceFair price 1.182 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

RB Leipzig to win and both score
41% chanceFair price 2.471 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives RB Leipzig 69%, the draw 17% and SV Elversberg 14%. The bookmakers agree and make RB Leipzig the favourite at 1.30.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    RB Leipzig took 9 points from their last 5 games and SV Elversberg took 7 from 5. RB Leipzig come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    RB Leipzig won 9 of their last 11 games at home. SV Elversberg won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    RB Leipzig score 2.1 goals a game and let in 1.4. SV Elversberg score 1.9 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 16 of RB Leipzig games and 14 of SV Elversberg games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    RB Leipzig or Draw has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Elversbergrecent form+1%
  • RB Leipzigrest between games-5%
RB Leipzig form D W L W LElversberg form D D L W WHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg: RB Leipzig are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

RB Leipzig host SV Elversberg in the Bundesliga on Sat 24 Oct, 13:30 at Red Bull Arena. Our prediction for RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg is RB Leipzig to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is RB Leipzig or Draw at 1.18.

RB Leipzig form

RB Leipzig have 12 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 43 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 9 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.

SV Elversberg form

SV Elversberg have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect RB Leipzig to score about 2.7 goals and SV Elversberg about 1.1. That points to RB Leipzig to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is RB Leipzig or Draw at 1.18. Our bold bet is RB Leipzig to win and both score at 2.47.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

RB LeipzigElversberg
Games played2020
Wins1210
Draws24
Losses66
Goals scored4338
Goals conceded2828
Scored per game2.11.9
Conceded per game1.41.4
Home record9W 2D 0L7W 0D 3L
Away record3W 0D 6L3W 4D 3L
Clean sheets30%20%
Both teams scored60%65%
Over 2.5 goals80%70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
RB Leipzig to win70%1.421.30-8.2%
A Draw16%6.085.25-13.7%
SV Elversberg to win14%7.386.50-11.9%
Over 3.5 goals52%1.941.67-14.0%
Under 3.5 goals44%2.262.10-7.2%
RB Leipzig -1.549%2.051.74-14.9%
SV Elversberg +1.547%2.131.91-10.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals90%1.11
Over 2.5 goals74%1.36
Over 3.5 goals53%1.87
Both teams to score64%1.56
RB Leipzig or Draw86%1.16
SV Elversberg or Draw31%3.26
RB Leipzig to win and Over 2.556%1.78
SV Elversberg to win and Over 2.510%9.87
RB Leipzig clean sheet32%3.17
SV Elversberg clean sheet7%14.61

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.0%
3-18.0%
2-07.8%
1-17.1%
3-06.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg?

Our prediction for RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg is RB Leipzig to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is RB Leipzig or Draw at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 3-1 and 2-0. We expect RB Leipzig to score 2.7 goals and SV Elversberg 1.1.

Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of RB Leipzig last 20 games and 13 of SV Elversberg last 20.

How are RB Leipzig playing?

RB Leipzig have 12 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 43 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 9 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.

How are SV Elversberg playing?

SV Elversberg have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg?

RB Leipzig or Draw at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in RB Leipzig against Elversberg. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
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