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Predictions › Austria › RB Salzburg vs SK Sturm Graz
Austrian BundesligaSun 20 Sept, 15:00 Austria time

RB Salzburg vs SK Sturm Graz prediction

Red Bull Arena Salzburg

RB SalzburgHome
1.74 : 1.63
expected goals
SK Sturm GrazAway
40%RB Salzburg
24%Draw
36%Sturm Graz
Eagle safe pickBoth teams to score
1.47

Quick answer

Our prediction for RB Salzburg vs SK Sturm Graz is RB Salzburg to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Both teams to score at 1.47.

Prediction
RB Salzburg to win
Chance
40%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
RB Salzburg 1.7, SK Sturm Graz 1.6
Best bet
Both teams to score at 1.47
Both teams to score
67%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Both teams to score
68% chanceFair price 1.471 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

RB Salzburg to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 3.571 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives RB Salzburg 40%, the draw 24% and SK Sturm Graz 36%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    RB Salzburg took 11 points from their last 5 games and SK Sturm Graz took 8 from 5. RB Salzburg come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    RB Salzburg won 4 of their last 9 games at home. SK Sturm Graz won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    RB Salzburg score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.1. SK Sturm Graz score 1.5 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of RB Salzburg games and 4 of SK Sturm Graz games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, RB Salzburg won 0 and SK Sturm Graz won 1 with 3 draws. The last one ended RB Salzburg 1, SK Sturm Graz 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Both teams to score has a 68% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • RB Salzburgrecent form+6%
  • RB Salzburgrest between games-5%
RB Salzburg form D W W W WSturm Graz form L D W L WHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

RB Salzburg vs SK Sturm Graz: RB Salzburg shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

RB Salzburg host SK Sturm Graz in the Austrian Bundesliga on Sun 20 Sept, 15:00 at Red Bull Arena Salzburg. Our prediction for RB Salzburg vs SK Sturm Graz is RB Salzburg to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Both teams to score at 1.47.

RB Salzburg form

RB Salzburg have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, D, newest first.

SK Sturm Graz form

SK Sturm Graz have 9 wins, 9 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. RB Salzburg won 0, SK Sturm Graz won 1 and 3 games ended level. Last time out it finished RB Salzburg 1, SK Sturm Graz 1.

Our call

We expect RB Salzburg to score about 1.7 goals and SK Sturm Graz about 1.6. That points to RB Salzburg to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Both teams to score at 1.47. Our bold bet is RB Salzburg to win and Over 2.5 at 3.57.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

RB SalzburgSturm Graz
Games played2020
Wins89
Draws69
Losses62
Goals scored3530
Goals conceded2217
Scored per game1.81.5
Conceded per game1.10.8
Home record4W 2D 3L5W 5D 0L
Away record4W 4D 3L4W 4D 2L
Clean sheets15%40%
Both teams scored70%55%
Over 2.5 goals50%20%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals86%1.17
Over 2.5 goals65%1.53
Over 3.5 goals43%2.30
Both teams to score67%1.50
RB Salzburg or Draw64%1.56
SK Sturm Graz or Draw60%1.67
RB Salzburg to win and Over 2.530%3.37
SK Sturm Graz to win and Over 2.526%3.81
RB Salzburg clean sheet20%5.11
SK Sturm Graz clean sheet18%5.68

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.3%
2-18.5%
1-28.0%
2-26.9%
1-05.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win RB Salzburg vs SK Sturm Graz?

Our prediction for RB Salzburg vs SK Sturm Graz is RB Salzburg to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Both teams to score at 1.47.

What is the score prediction for RB Salzburg vs SK Sturm Graz?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect RB Salzburg to score 1.7 goals and SK Sturm Graz 1.6.

Will both teams score in RB Salzburg vs SK Sturm Graz?

Both teams to score has a 67% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of RB Salzburg last 20 games and 11 of SK Sturm Graz last 20.

How are RB Salzburg playing?

RB Salzburg have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, D, newest first.

How are SK Sturm Graz playing?

SK Sturm Graz have 9 wins, 9 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, D, newest first.

What happened when RB Salzburg and SK Sturm Graz last met?

It ended RB Salzburg 1, SK Sturm Graz 1. In the last 4 meetings RB Salzburg won 0 and SK Sturm Graz won 1.

What is the best bet for RB Salzburg vs SK Sturm Graz?

Both teams to score at 1.47, with a 68% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in RB Salzburg against Sturm Graz. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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