Predictions › United Kingdom › Reading vs Bradford City

League OneSat 3 Oct, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Reading vs Bradford City prediction

Madejski Stadium

ReadingHome

1.41 : 1.18

expected goals

Bradford CityAway

42%Reading

28%Draw

31%Bradford

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1/3

Quick answer

Our prediction for Reading vs Bradford City is Reading to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

Prediction: Reading to win
Chance: 42%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Reading 1.4, Bradford City 1.2
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1/3
Both teams to score: 53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1/31 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 13/21 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Reading 42%, the draw 28% and Bradford City 31%. The bookmakers agree and make Reading the favourite at 5/4.
2
Recent form
Reading took 7 points from their last 5 games and Bradford City took 12 from 5. Bradford City come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Reading won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Bradford City won 6 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Reading score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.3. Bradford City score 1.1 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Reading games and 6 of Bradford City games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Reading won 1 and Bradford City won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Reading 2, Bradford City 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Bradfordrecent form+7%
Readingrest between games-5%

Reading form D W L L WBradford form W W W W WHome edge in this league 21% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Reading vs Bradford City: Reading shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Reading host Bradford City in the League One on Sat 3 Oct, 15:00 at Madejski Stadium. Our prediction for Reading vs Bradford City is Reading to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

Reading form

Reading have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Bradford City form

Bradford City have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 16 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Reading won 1, Bradford City won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Reading 2, Bradford City 1.

Our call

We expect Reading to score about 1.4 goals and Bradford City about 1.2. That points to Reading to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 13/2.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Reading	Bradford
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	10
Draws	6	4
Losses	8	6
Goals scored	32	22
Goals conceded	25	16
Scored per game	1.6	1.1
Conceded per game	1.3	0.8
Home record	4W 1D 5L	4W 3D 3L
Away record	2W 5D 3L	6W 1D 3L
Clean sheets	25%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	30%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Reading to win	39%	8/5	5/4	-11.4%
A Draw	27%	11/4	9/4	-12.0%
Bradford City to win	29%	12/5	15/8	-15.1%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	5/4	10/11	-14.8%
Under 2.5 goals	49%	21/20	8/11	-14.5%
Reading -0.5	38%	8/5	6/5	-15.6%
Bradford City +0.5	55%	4/5	4/7	-13.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	74%	4/11
Over 2.5 goals	48%	11/10
Over 3.5 goals	26%	11/4
Both teams to score	53%	10/11
Reading or Draw	69%	4/9
Bradford City or Draw	58%	8/11
Reading to win and Over 2.5	24%	3/1
Bradford City to win and Over 2.5	17%	5/1
Reading clean sheet	31%	9/4
Bradford City clean sheet	24%	3/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.2%

1-09.9%

2-18.8%

0-08.2%

0-18.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Reading vs Bradford City?

Our prediction for Reading vs Bradford City is Reading to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

What is the score prediction for Reading vs Bradford City?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Reading to score 1.4 goals and Bradford City 1.2.

Will both teams score in Reading vs Bradford City?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Reading last 20 games and 8 of Bradford City last 20.

How are Reading playing?

How are Bradford City playing?

What happened when Reading and Bradford City last met?

It ended Reading 2, Bradford City 1. In the last 2 meetings Reading won 1 and Bradford City won 1.

What is the best bet for Reading vs Bradford City?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/3, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Reading against Bradford. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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