Predictions › Spain › Real Madrid vs Sevilla

LaLigaSun 18 Oct, 19:00 Spain time

Real Madrid vs Sevilla prediction

Santiago Bernabéu

Real MadridHome

2.67 : 0.98

expected goals

SevillaAway

73%Real Madrid

16%Draw

11%Sevilla

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for Real Madrid vs Sevilla is Real Madrid to win, with a 73% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

Prediction: Real Madrid to win
Chance: 73%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.7, Sevilla 1.0
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.17
Both teams to score: 58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

86% chanceFair price 1.172 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Real Madrid to win and both score

36% chanceFair price 2.771 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Real Madrid 73%, the draw 16% and Sevilla 11%. The bookmakers agree and make Real Madrid the favourite at 1.26.
2
Recent form
Real Madrid took 9 points from their last 5 games and Sevilla took 7 from 5. Real Madrid come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Real Madrid won 8 of their last 10 games at home. Sevilla won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Real Madrid score 2.0 goals a game and let in 1.3. Sevilla score 1.2 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Real Madrid games and 10 of Sevilla games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Real Madrid won 2 and Sevilla won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Sevilla 0, Real Madrid 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 86% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Real Madridrecent form+1%

Real Madrid form L W W W LSevilla form L W W D LHome edge in this league 35% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Real Madrid vs Sevilla: Real Madrid are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Real Madrid host Sevilla in the LaLiga on Sun 18 Oct, 19:00 at Santiago Bernabéu. Our prediction for Real Madrid vs Sevilla is Real Madrid to win, with a 73% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

Real Madrid form

Real Madrid have 12 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Sevilla form

Sevilla have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Real Madrid won 2, Sevilla won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Sevilla 0, Real Madrid 1.

Our call

We expect Real Madrid to score about 2.7 goals and Sevilla about 1.0. That points to Real Madrid to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17. Our bold bet is Real Madrid to win and both score at 2.77.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Real Madrid	Sevilla
Games played	20	20
Wins	12	8
Draws	2	3
Losses	6	9
Goals scored	41	24
Goals conceded	26	30
Scored per game	2.0	1.2
Conceded per game	1.3	1.5
Home record	8W 1D 1L	5W 1D 4L
Away record	4W 1D 5L	3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	20%	15%
Both teams scored	70%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Real Madrid to win	74%	1.35	1.26	-6.3%
A Draw	16%	6.35	6.00	-5.5%
Sevilla to win	9%	11.35	9.00	-20.7%
Over 3.5 goals	46%	2.20	1.91	-13.1%
Under 3.5 goals	48%	2.10	1.80	-14.1%
Real Madrid -1.5	52%	1.93	1.59	-17.7%
Sevilla +1.5	41%	2.41	2.10	-13.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	88%	1.13
Over 2.5 goals	71%	1.42
Over 3.5 goals	50%	2.02
Both teams to score	58%	1.71
Real Madrid or Draw	89%	1.12
Sevilla or Draw	27%	3.69
Real Madrid to win and Over 2.5	57%	1.75
Sevilla to win and Over 2.5	8%	13.19
Real Madrid clean sheet	38%	2.66
Sevilla clean sheet	7%	14.46

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-09.3%

2-19.1%

3-08.3%

3-18.1%

1-17.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

LaLiga

Asencio Vows to Turn Real Madrid Career Around After DUI Conviction

Real Madrid defender Raul Asencio has apologised for his drink driving conviction and vowed to focus on winning trophies with the club.

12 hours ago

LaLiga

Mbappe Future in Doubt After Mourinho Clash as Arsenal Eye Alvarez

Kylian Mbappe faces an uncertain future at Real Madrid after a clash with Jose Mourinho, while Arsenal plan a fresh bid for Julian Alvarez.

14 hours ago

LaLiga

Mourinho Faces Huge Test as Real Madrid Struggle

José Mourinho faces a tough five game run to save Real Madrid's season as defensive woes and player form issues mount.

6 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Real Madrid vs Sevilla?

Our prediction for Real Madrid vs Sevilla is Real Madrid to win, with a 73% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for Real Madrid vs Sevilla?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 3-0. We expect Real Madrid to score 2.7 goals and Sevilla 1.0.

Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Sevilla?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Real Madrid last 20 games and 12 of Sevilla last 20.

How are Real Madrid playing?

How are Sevilla playing?

What happened when Real Madrid and Sevilla last met?

It ended Sevilla 0, Real Madrid 1. In the last 2 meetings Real Madrid won 2 and Sevilla won 0.

What is the best bet for Real Madrid vs Sevilla?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.17, with a 86% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Real Madrid against Sevilla. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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