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Predictions › United States › Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes
MLSWed 14 Oct, 21:30 United States time

Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction

America First Field

Real Salt LakeHome
1.43 : 1.83
expected goals
San Jose EarthquakesAway
29%Salt Lake
24%Draw
47%San Jose
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
-446

Quick answer

Our prediction for Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes is San Jose Earthquakes to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -446.

Prediction
San Jose Earthquakes to win
Chance
47%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Real Salt Lake 1.4, San Jose Earthquakes 1.8
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at -446
Both teams to score
64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
82% chanceFair price -4462 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

San Jose Earthquakes to win and Over 2.5
33% chanceFair price +2071 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Real Salt Lake 29%, the draw 24% and San Jose Earthquakes 47%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Real Salt Lake took 3 points from their last 5 games and San Jose Earthquakes took 11 from 5. San Jose Earthquakes come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Real Salt Lake won 4 of their last 10 games at home. San Jose Earthquakes won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Real Salt Lake score 1.2 goals a game and let in 1.7. San Jose Earthquakes score 1.8 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Real Salt Lake games and 13 of San Jose Earthquakes games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Salt Lakerecent form-4%
  • San Joserecent form+4%
Salt Lake form W L L L LSan Jose form W D W W DHome edge in this league 27% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes: San Jose Earthquakes are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Real Salt Lake host San Jose Earthquakes in the MLS on Wed 14 Oct, 21:30 at America First Field. Our prediction for Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes is San Jose Earthquakes to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -446.

Real Salt Lake form

Real Salt Lake have 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, L, newest first.

San Jose Earthquakes form

San Jose Earthquakes have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 37 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Real Salt Lake to score about 1.4 goals and San Jose Earthquakes about 1.8. That points to San Jose Earthquakes to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at -446. Our bold bet is San Jose Earthquakes to win and Over 2.5 at +207.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Salt LakeSan Jose
Games played2020
Wins47
Draws46
Losses127
Goals scored2436
Goals conceded3437
Scored per game1.21.8
Conceded per game1.71.9
Home record4W 2D 4L3W 3D 4L
Away record0W 2D 8L4W 3D 3L
Clean sheets15%10%
Both teams scored60%80%
Over 2.5 goals60%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals84%-535
Over 2.5 goals63%-172
Over 3.5 goals41%+143
Both teams to score64%-181
Real Salt Lake or Draw53%-114
San Jose Earthquakes or Draw71%-240
Real Salt Lake to win and Over 2.521%+384
San Jose Earthquakes to win and Over 2.534%+196
Real Salt Lake clean sheet16%+527
San Jose Earthquakes clean sheet24%+316

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.6%
1-29.2%
2-17.2%
2-26.6%
0-26.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Our prediction for Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes is San Jose Earthquakes to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -446.

What is the score prediction for Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Real Salt Lake to score 1.4 goals and San Jose Earthquakes 1.8.

Will both teams score in Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Real Salt Lake last 20 games and 16 of San Jose Earthquakes last 20.

How are Real Salt Lake playing?

Real Salt Lake have 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, L, newest first.

How are San Jose Earthquakes playing?

San Jose Earthquakes have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 37 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Over 1.5 goals at -446, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Salt Lake against San Jose. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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