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Predictions › Spain › Real Sociedad vs Deportivo
LaLigaSun 11 Oct, 14:15 Spain time

Real Sociedad vs Deportivo prediction

Reale Arena

Real SociedadHome
1.73 : 1.09
expected goals
DeportivoAway
52%Real Sociedad
25%Draw
23%Deportivo
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Real Sociedad vs Deportivo is Real Sociedad to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
Real Sociedad to win
Chance
52%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Real Sociedad 1.7, Deportivo 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Real Sociedad to win and Over 2.5
32% chanceFair price 3.141 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Real Sociedad 52%, the draw 25% and Deportivo 23%. The bookmakers agree and make Real Sociedad the favourite at 1.71.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Real Sociedad took 7 points from their last 5 games and Deportivo took 8 from 5. Deportivo come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Real Sociedad won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Deportivo won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Real Sociedad score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.9. Deportivo score 1.6 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Real Sociedad games and 8 of Deportivo games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Deportivorecent form+1%
Real Sociedad form W L L W DDeportivo form D L D W WHome edge in this league 35% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Real Sociedad vs Deportivo: Real Sociedad are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Real Sociedad host Deportivo in the LaLiga on Sun 11 Oct, 14:15 at Reale Arena. Our prediction for Real Sociedad vs Deportivo is Real Sociedad to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Real Sociedad form

Real Sociedad have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 38 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, D, newest first.

Deportivo form

Deportivo have 10 wins, 8 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Real Sociedad to score about 1.7 goals and Deportivo about 1.1. That points to Real Sociedad to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Real Sociedad to win and Over 2.5 at 3.14.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Real SociedadDeportivo
Games played2020
Wins510
Draws68
Losses92
Goals scored3131
Goals conceded3819
Scored per game1.61.6
Conceded per game1.90.9
Home record3W 3D 4L6W 3D 2L
Away record2W 3D 5L4W 5D 0L
Clean sheets10%15%
Both teams scored70%80%
Over 2.5 goals65%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Real Sociedad to win49%2.061.71-16.7%
A Draw25%4.073.80-6.8%
Deportivo to win23%4.374.40+0.6%
Over 2.5 goals50%2.011.77-12.0%
Under 2.5 goals44%2.251.95-13.4%
Real Sociedad -0.551%1.971.65-16.5%
Deportivo +0.543%2.312.00-13.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%1.28
Over 2.5 goals54%1.86
Over 3.5 goals31%3.19
Both teams to score55%1.80
Real Sociedad or Draw77%1.30
Deportivo or Draw48%2.07
Real Sociedad to win and Over 2.533%3.02
Deportivo to win and Over 2.514%7.17
Real Sociedad clean sheet33%2.99
Deportivo clean sheet18%5.65

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.9%
2-19.7%
1-09.6%
2-08.9%
0-06.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Real Sociedad vs Deportivo?

Our prediction for Real Sociedad vs Deportivo is Real Sociedad to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Real Sociedad vs Deportivo?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Real Sociedad to score 1.7 goals and Deportivo 1.1.

Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Deportivo?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Real Sociedad last 20 games and 16 of Deportivo last 20.

How are Real Sociedad playing?

Real Sociedad have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 38 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, D, newest first.

How are Deportivo playing?

Deportivo have 10 wins, 8 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Real Sociedad vs Deportivo?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Real Sociedad against Deportivo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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