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Predictions › Europa League › Real Sociedad vs Lyon
Europa LeagueThu 5 Nov, 17:45 UTC

Real Sociedad vs Lyon prediction

Reale Arena

Real SociedadHome
1.61 : 1.37
expected goals
LyonAway
43%Real Sociedad
26%Draw
32%Lyon
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Real Sociedad vs Lyon is Real Sociedad to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction
Real Sociedad to win
Chance
43%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Real Sociedad 1.6, Lyon 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1.242 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Lyon to win
31% chancePrice 3.50+7.1% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Real Sociedad 43%, the draw 26% and Lyon 32%. The bookmakers agree and make Real Sociedad the favourite at 1.95.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Real Sociedad took 13 points from their last 5 games and Lyon took 9 from 5. Real Sociedad come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Real Sociedad won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Lyon won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Real Sociedad score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.7. Lyon score 1.6 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Real Sociedad games and 13 of Lyon games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Real Sociedadrecent form+4%
  • Lyonrecent form+3%
  • Real Sociedadrest between games-5%
Real Sociedad form D W W D WLyon form D W W L WHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Real Sociedad vs Lyon: Real Sociedad shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Real Sociedad host Lyon in the Europa League on Thu 5 Nov, 17:45 at Reale Arena. Our prediction for Real Sociedad vs Lyon is Real Sociedad to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Real Sociedad form

Real Sociedad have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

Lyon form

Lyon have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Real Sociedad to score about 1.6 goals and Lyon about 1.4. That points to Real Sociedad to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Lyon to win at 3.50.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Real SociedadLyon
Games played2020
Wins710
Draws64
Losses76
Goals scored3731
Goals conceded3426
Scored per game1.91.6
Conceded per game1.71.3
Home record3W 2D 4L7W 1D 3L
Away record4W 4D 3L3W 3D 3L
Clean sheets10%30%
Both teams scored70%55%
Over 2.5 goals65%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Real Sociedad to win42%2.391.95-18.5%
A Draw25%4.053.65-9.9%
Lyon to win31%3.273.50+7.1%
Over 2.5 goals53%1.881.56-17.2%
Under 2.5 goals41%2.462.30-6.5%
Real Sociedad -0.545%2.221.83-17.5%
Lyon +0.549%2.041.77-13.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1.24
Over 2.5 goals57%1.75
Over 3.5 goals35%2.88
Both teams to score60%1.66
Real Sociedad or Draw68%1.47
Lyon or Draw57%1.74
Real Sociedad to win and Over 2.528%3.52
Lyon to win and Over 2.521%4.80
Real Sociedad clean sheet25%3.92
Lyon clean sheet20%5.00

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.9%
2-19.0%
1-27.7%
1-07.5%
2-06.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Real Sociedad vs Lyon?

Our prediction for Real Sociedad vs Lyon is Real Sociedad to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Real Sociedad vs Lyon?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Real Sociedad to score 1.6 goals and Lyon 1.4.

Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Lyon?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Real Sociedad last 20 games and 11 of Lyon last 20.

How are Real Sociedad playing?

Real Sociedad have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

How are Lyon playing?

Lyon have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Real Sociedad vs Lyon?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.24, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Real Sociedad against Lyon. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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