Predictions › Spain › Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano

LaLigaSun 8 Nov, 15:15 Spain time

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano prediction

Reale Arena

Real SociedadHome

1.89 : 1.18

expected goals

Rayo VallecanoAway

53%Real Sociedad

24%Draw

23%Rayo

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano is Real Sociedad to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Prediction: Real Sociedad to win
Chance: 53%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Real Sociedad 1.9, Rayo Vallecano 1.2
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.22
Both teams to score: 59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

82% chanceFair price 1.222 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Real Sociedad to win and Over 2.5

36% chanceFair price 2.751 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Real Sociedad 53%, the draw 24% and Rayo Vallecano 23%. The bookmakers agree and make Real Sociedad the favourite at 1.77.
2
Recent form
Real Sociedad took 13 points from their last 5 games and Rayo Vallecano took 5 from 5. Real Sociedad come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Real Sociedad won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Rayo Vallecano won 3 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Real Sociedad score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.7. Rayo Vallecano score 1.4 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Real Sociedad games and 9 of Rayo Vallecano games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Real Sociedad won 0 and Rayo Vallecano won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Rayo Vallecano 3, Real Sociedad 3.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Real Sociedadrecent form+4%

Real Sociedad form D W W D WRayo form D L D D WHome edge in this league 35% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano: Real Sociedad are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Real Sociedad host Rayo Vallecano in the LaLiga on Sun 8 Nov, 15:15 at Reale Arena. Our prediction for Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano is Real Sociedad to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Real Sociedad form

Real Sociedad have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

Rayo Vallecano form

Rayo Vallecano have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Real Sociedad won 0, Rayo Vallecano won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Rayo Vallecano 3, Real Sociedad 3.

Our call

We expect Real Sociedad to score about 1.9 goals and Rayo Vallecano about 1.2. That points to Real Sociedad to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22. Our bold bet is Real Sociedad to win and Over 2.5 at 2.75.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Real Sociedad	Rayo
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	8
Draws	6	6
Losses	7	6
Goals scored	37	27
Goals conceded	34	30
Scored per game	1.9	1.4
Conceded per game	1.7	1.5
Home record	3W 2D 4L	5W 3D 1L
Away record	4W 4D 3L	3W 3D 5L
Clean sheets	10%	25%
Both teams scored	70%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Real Sociedad to win	49%	2.03	1.77	-12.7%
A Draw	23%	4.29	3.85	-10.2%
Rayo Vallecano to win	23%	4.41	4.00	-9.2%
Over 2.5 goals	52%	1.92	1.65	-14.2%
Under 2.5 goals	42%	2.40	2.15	-10.5%
Real Sociedad -0.5	49%	2.02	1.69	-16.5%
Rayo Vallecano +0.5	44%	2.25	1.95	-13.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	82%	1.22
Over 2.5 goals	59%	1.69
Over 3.5 goals	37%	2.71
Both teams to score	59%	1.68
Real Sociedad or Draw	77%	1.30
Rayo Vallecano or Draw	47%	2.15
Real Sociedad to win and Over 2.5	37%	2.70
Rayo Vallecano to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.72
Real Sociedad clean sheet	31%	3.25
Rayo Vallecano clean sheet	15%	6.65

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.0%

2-19.8%

2-08.3%

1-08.1%

3-16.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?

Our prediction for Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano is Real Sociedad to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Real Sociedad to score 1.9 goals and Rayo Vallecano 1.2.

Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Real Sociedad last 20 games and 13 of Rayo Vallecano last 20.

How are Real Sociedad playing?

How are Rayo Vallecano playing?

What happened when Real Sociedad and Rayo Vallecano last met?

It ended Rayo Vallecano 3, Real Sociedad 3. In the last 2 meetings Real Sociedad won 0 and Rayo Vallecano won 1.

What is the best bet for Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Real Sociedad against Rayo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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