Predictions › Spain › Real Valladolid vs Castellón

LaLiga 2Sat 14 Nov, 13:00 Spain time

Real Valladolid vs Castellón prediction

Estadio José Zorrilla

Real ValladolidHome

1.23 : 1.60

expected goals

CastellónAway

29%Valladolid

26%Draw

45%Castellón

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Real Valladolid vs Castellón is Castellón to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction: Castellón to win
Chance: 45%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Real Valladolid 1.2, Castellón 1.6
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score: 57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

78% chanceFair price 1.282 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Castellón to win and Over 2.5

29% chanceFair price 3.471 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Real Valladolid 29%, the draw 26% and Castellón 45%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Real Valladolid took 7 points from their last 5 games and Castellón took 8 from 5. Castellón come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Real Valladolid won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Castellón won 7 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Real Valladolid score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.4. Castellón score 1.8 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Real Valladolid games and 9 of Castellón games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Real Valladolid won 0 and Castellón won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Real Valladolid 0, Castellón 4.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Valladolidrecent form+1%
Castellónrecent form+3%
Valladolidrest between games-2%

Valladolid form W W L L WCastellón form D W W W LHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Real Valladolid vs Castellón: Castellón are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Real Valladolid host Castellón in the LaLiga 2 on Sat 14 Nov, 13:00 at Estadio José Zorrilla. Our prediction for Real Valladolid vs Castellón is Castellón to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Real Valladolid form

Real Valladolid have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, D, newest first.

Castellón form

Castellón have 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 16 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Real Valladolid won 0, Castellón won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Real Valladolid 0, Castellón 4.

Our call

We expect Real Valladolid to score about 1.2 goals and Castellón about 1.6. That points to Castellón to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Castellón to win and Over 2.5 at 3.47.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Valladolid	Castellón
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	11
Draws	4	6
Losses	10	3
Goals scored	25	35
Goals conceded	29	16
Scored per game	1.3	1.8
Conceded per game	1.4	0.8
Home record	6W 1D 3L	4W 4D 1L
Away record	0W 3D 7L	7W 2D 2L
Clean sheets	25%	40%
Both teams scored	45%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	78%	1.28
Over 2.5 goals	54%	1.87
Over 3.5 goals	31%	3.19
Both teams to score	57%	1.75
Real Valladolid or Draw	55%	1.83
Castellón or Draw	71%	1.40
Real Valladolid to win and Over 2.5	18%	5.69
Castellón to win and Over 2.5	29%	3.46
Real Valladolid clean sheet	20%	4.94
Castellón clean sheet	29%	3.41

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.3%

1-29.3%

0-18.8%

0-27.6%

2-17.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Real Valladolid vs Castellón?

Our prediction for Real Valladolid vs Castellón is Castellón to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Real Valladolid vs Castellón?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Real Valladolid to score 1.2 goals and Castellón 1.6.

Will both teams score in Real Valladolid vs Castellón?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Real Valladolid last 20 games and 11 of Castellón last 20.

How are Real Valladolid playing?

How are Castellón playing?

What happened when Real Valladolid and Castellón last met?

It ended Real Valladolid 0, Castellón 4. In the last 1 meeting Real Valladolid won 0 and Castellón won 1.

What is the best bet for Real Valladolid vs Castellón?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Valladolid against Castellón. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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