Predictions › Brazil › Red Bull Bragantino vs Chapecoense

BrasileiraoWed 28 Oct, 22:30 Brazil time

Red Bull Bragantino vs Chapecoense prediction

Estádio Municipal Cicero de Souza Marques

Red Bull BragantinoHome

1.77 : 0.78

expected goals

ChapecoenseAway

60%Bragantino

24%Draw

15%Chapecoense

Eagle safe pickRed Bull Bragantino or Draw

1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Red Bull Bragantino vs Chapecoense is Red Bull Bragantino to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Red Bull Bragantino or Draw at 1.19.

Prediction: Red Bull Bragantino to win
Chance: 60%
Most likely score: 1-0
Expected goals: Red Bull Bragantino 1.8, Chapecoense 0.8
Best bet: Red Bull Bragantino or Draw at 1.19
Both teams to score: 45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Red Bull Bragantino or Draw

84% chanceFair price 1.192 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Red Bull Bragantino to win and Over 2.5

35% chanceFair price 2.871 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Red Bull Bragantino 60%, the draw 24% and Chapecoense 15%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Red Bull Bragantino took 5 points from their last 5 games and Chapecoense took 1 from 5. Red Bull Bragantino come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Red Bull Bragantino won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Chapecoense won 1 of their last 12 on the road.
4
Goals
Red Bull Bragantino score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.2. Chapecoense score 1.0 and let in 2.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Red Bull Bragantino games and 14 of Chapecoense games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Red Bull Bragantino won 1 and Chapecoense won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Chapecoense 1, Red Bull Bragantino 2.
6
The safest bet
Red Bull Bragantino or Draw has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Bragantinorecent form-1%
Chapecoenserecent form-4%
Bragantinorest between games-5%
Chapecoenserest between games-5%

Bragantino form D W D L LChapecoense form D L L D LHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Red Bull Bragantino vs Chapecoense: Red Bull Bragantino are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Red Bull Bragantino host Chapecoense in the Brasileirao on Wed 28 Oct, 22:30 at Estádio Municipal Cicero de Souza Marques. Our prediction for Red Bull Bragantino vs Chapecoense is Red Bull Bragantino to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Red Bull Bragantino or Draw at 1.19.

Red Bull Bragantino form

Red Bull Bragantino have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, L, newest first.

Chapecoense form

Chapecoense have 2 wins, 4 draws and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 44 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 8 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Red Bull Bragantino won 1, Chapecoense won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Chapecoense 1, Red Bull Bragantino 2.

Our call

We expect Red Bull Bragantino to score about 1.8 goals and Chapecoense about 0.8. That points to Red Bull Bragantino to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Red Bull Bragantino or Draw at 1.19. Our bold bet is Red Bull Bragantino to win and Over 2.5 at 2.87.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Bragantino	Chapecoense
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	2
Draws	6	4
Losses	7	14
Goals scored	28	20
Goals conceded	24	44
Scored per game	1.4	1.0
Conceded per game	1.2	2.2
Home record	5W 2D 3L	1W 1D 6L
Away record	2W 4D 4L	1W 3D 8L
Clean sheets	20%	5%
Both teams scored	60%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	73%	1.37
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.14
Over 3.5 goals	25%	3.96
Both teams to score	45%	2.20
Red Bull Bragantino or Draw	85%	1.18
Chapecoense or Draw	40%	2.52
Red Bull Bragantino to win and Over 2.5	35%	2.86
Chapecoense to win and Over 2.5	8%	13.18
Red Bull Bragantino clean sheet	46%	2.17
Chapecoense clean sheet	17%	5.87

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-013.2%

2-012.3%

1-111.4%

2-19.5%

0-08.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Red Bull Bragantino vs Chapecoense?

Our prediction for Red Bull Bragantino vs Chapecoense is Red Bull Bragantino to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Red Bull Bragantino or Draw at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Red Bull Bragantino vs Chapecoense?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect Red Bull Bragantino to score 1.8 goals and Chapecoense 0.8.

Will both teams score in Red Bull Bragantino vs Chapecoense?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Red Bull Bragantino last 20 games and 14 of Chapecoense last 20.

How are Red Bull Bragantino playing?

How are Chapecoense playing?

What happened when Red Bull Bragantino and Chapecoense last met?

It ended Chapecoense 1, Red Bull Bragantino 2. In the last 1 meeting Red Bull Bragantino won 1 and Chapecoense won 0.

What is the best bet for Red Bull Bragantino vs Chapecoense?

Red Bull Bragantino or Draw at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Bragantino against Chapecoense. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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