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BrasileiraoWed 7 Oct, 22:30 Brazil time

Red Bull Bragantino vs Mirassol prediction

Estádio Municipal Cicero de Souza Marques

Red Bull BragantinoHome

1.62 : 1.03

expected goals

MirassolAway

50%Bragantino

26%Draw

23%Mirassol

Eagle safe pickRed Bull Bragantino or Draw

1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Red Bull Bragantino vs Mirassol is Red Bull Bragantino to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Red Bull Bragantino or Draw at 1.31.

Prediction: Red Bull Bragantino to win
Chance: 50%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Red Bull Bragantino 1.6, Mirassol 1.0
Best bet: Red Bull Bragantino or Draw at 1.31
Both teams to score: 52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Red Bull Bragantino or Draw

76% chanceFair price 1.312 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Red Bull Bragantino to win and Over 2.5

29% chanceFair price 3.441 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Red Bull Bragantino 50%, the draw 26% and Mirassol 23%. The bookmakers agree and make Red Bull Bragantino the favourite at 1.77.
2
Recent form
Red Bull Bragantino took 4 points from their last 5 games and Mirassol took 8 from 5. Mirassol come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Red Bull Bragantino won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Mirassol won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Red Bull Bragantino score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.1. Mirassol score 1.1 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Red Bull Bragantino games and 8 of Mirassol games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Red Bull Bragantino won 1 and Mirassol won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Mirassol 0, Red Bull Bragantino 1.
6
The safest bet
Red Bull Bragantino or Draw has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Bragantinorecent form-3%
Mirassolrecent form+1%

Bragantino form L D L L WMirassol form W D W L DHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Red Bull Bragantino vs Mirassol: Red Bull Bragantino are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Red Bull Bragantino host Mirassol in the Brasileirao on Wed 7 Oct, 22:30 at Estádio Municipal Cicero de Souza Marques. Our prediction for Red Bull Bragantino vs Mirassol is Red Bull Bragantino to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Red Bull Bragantino or Draw at 1.31.

Red Bull Bragantino form

Red Bull Bragantino have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, L, W, newest first.

Mirassol form

Mirassol have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Red Bull Bragantino won 1, Mirassol won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Mirassol 0, Red Bull Bragantino 1.

Our call

We expect Red Bull Bragantino to score about 1.6 goals and Mirassol about 1.0. That points to Red Bull Bragantino to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Red Bull Bragantino or Draw at 1.31. Our bold bet is Red Bull Bragantino to win and Over 2.5 at 3.44.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Bragantino	Mirassol
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	7
Draws	4	7
Losses	8	6
Goals scored	28	23
Goals conceded	23	26
Scored per game	1.4	1.1
Conceded per game	1.1	1.3
Home record	5W 1D 4L	5W 4D 1L
Away record	3W 3D 4L	2W 3D 5L
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Both teams scored	55%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Red Bull Bragantino to win	47%	2.11	1.77	-16.2%
A Draw	25%	3.95	3.65	-7.6%
Mirassol to win	23%	4.41	4.20	-4.7%
Over 2.5 goals	48%	2.08	1.77	-15.1%
Under 2.5 goals	46%	2.19	1.91	-12.6%
Red Bull Bragantino -0.5	50%	2.02	1.69	-16.3%
Mirassol +0.5	44%	2.26	1.95	-13.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	75%	1.34
Over 2.5 goals	49%	2.03
Over 3.5 goals	27%	3.65
Both teams to score	52%	1.92
Red Bull Bragantino or Draw	77%	1.30
Mirassol or Draw	50%	2.02
Red Bull Bragantino to win and Over 2.5	30%	3.29
Mirassol to win and Over 2.5	13%	7.70
Red Bull Bragantino clean sheet	36%	2.79
Mirassol clean sheet	20%	5.05

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.5%

1-010.8%

2-19.5%

2-09.3%

0-07.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Red Bull Bragantino vs Mirassol?

Our prediction for Red Bull Bragantino vs Mirassol is Red Bull Bragantino to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Red Bull Bragantino or Draw at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Red Bull Bragantino vs Mirassol?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Red Bull Bragantino to score 1.6 goals and Mirassol 1.0.

Will both teams score in Red Bull Bragantino vs Mirassol?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Red Bull Bragantino last 20 games and 13 of Mirassol last 20.

How are Red Bull Bragantino playing?

How are Mirassol playing?

What happened when Red Bull Bragantino and Mirassol last met?

It ended Mirassol 0, Red Bull Bragantino 1. In the last 2 meetings Red Bull Bragantino won 1 and Mirassol won 0.

What is the best bet for Red Bull Bragantino vs Mirassol?

Red Bull Bragantino or Draw at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Bragantino against Mirassol. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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