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BrasileiraoSun 22 Nov, 22:30 Brazil time

Red Bull Bragantino vs Vasco da Gama prediction

Estádio Municipal Cicero de Souza Marques

Red Bull BragantinoHome

1.75 : 1.05

expected goals

Vasco da GamaAway

53%Bragantino

25%Draw

22%Vasco

Eagle safe pickRed Bull Bragantino or Draw

1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Red Bull Bragantino vs Vasco da Gama is Red Bull Bragantino to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Red Bull Bragantino or Draw at 1.28.

Prediction: Red Bull Bragantino to win
Chance: 53%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Red Bull Bragantino 1.8, Vasco da Gama 1.1
Best bet: Red Bull Bragantino or Draw at 1.28
Both teams to score: 54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Red Bull Bragantino or Draw

78% chanceFair price 1.282 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Red Bull Bragantino to win and Over 2.5

33% chanceFair price 3.011 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Red Bull Bragantino 53%, the draw 25% and Vasco da Gama 22%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Red Bull Bragantino took 10 points from their last 5 games and Vasco da Gama took 7 from 5. Red Bull Bragantino come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Red Bull Bragantino won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Vasco da Gama won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Red Bull Bragantino score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.1. Vasco da Gama score 1.3 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Red Bull Bragantino games and 12 of Vasco da Gama games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Red Bull Bragantino won 1 and Vasco da Gama won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Vasco da Gama 0, Red Bull Bragantino 3.
6
The safest bet
Red Bull Bragantino or Draw has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Bragantinorecent form+3%
Vascorecent form+1%

Bragantino form W W L D WVasco form W W L L WHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Red Bull Bragantino vs Vasco da Gama: Red Bull Bragantino are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Red Bull Bragantino host Vasco da Gama in the Brasileirao on Sun 22 Nov, 22:30 at Estádio Municipal Cicero de Souza Marques. Our prediction for Red Bull Bragantino vs Vasco da Gama is Red Bull Bragantino to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Red Bull Bragantino or Draw at 1.28.

Red Bull Bragantino form

Red Bull Bragantino have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, W, newest first.

Vasco da Gama form

Vasco da Gama have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Red Bull Bragantino won 1, Vasco da Gama won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Vasco da Gama 0, Red Bull Bragantino 3.

Our call

We expect Red Bull Bragantino to score about 1.8 goals and Vasco da Gama about 1.1. That points to Red Bull Bragantino to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Red Bull Bragantino or Draw at 1.28. Our bold bet is Red Bull Bragantino to win and Over 2.5 at 3.01.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Bragantino	Vasco
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	7
Draws	6	4
Losses	7	9
Goals scored	27	25
Goals conceded	23	31
Scored per game	1.4	1.3
Conceded per game	1.1	1.6
Home record	6W 2D 2L	4W 2D 4L
Away record	1W 4D 5L	3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	25%	20%
Both teams scored	55%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	78%	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	53%	1.88
Over 3.5 goals	31%	3.25
Both teams to score	54%	1.84
Red Bull Bragantino or Draw	78%	1.28
Vasco da Gama or Draw	47%	2.13
Red Bull Bragantino to win and Over 2.5	34%	2.95
Vasco da Gama to win and Over 2.5	13%	7.76
Red Bull Bragantino clean sheet	35%	2.85
Vasco da Gama clean sheet	17%	5.76

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.8%

1-010.0%

2-19.8%

2-09.3%

0-06.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Red Bull Bragantino vs Vasco da Gama?

Our prediction for Red Bull Bragantino vs Vasco da Gama is Red Bull Bragantino to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Red Bull Bragantino or Draw at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Red Bull Bragantino vs Vasco da Gama?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Red Bull Bragantino to score 1.8 goals and Vasco da Gama 1.1.

Will both teams score in Red Bull Bragantino vs Vasco da Gama?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Red Bull Bragantino last 20 games and 10 of Vasco da Gama last 20.

How are Red Bull Bragantino playing?

How are Vasco da Gama playing?

What happened when Red Bull Bragantino and Vasco da Gama last met?

It ended Vasco da Gama 0, Red Bull Bragantino 3. In the last 2 meetings Red Bull Bragantino won 1 and Vasco da Gama won 1.

What is the best bet for Red Bull Bragantino vs Vasco da Gama?

Red Bull Bragantino or Draw at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Bragantino against Vasco. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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