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Predictions › United States › Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC
MLSWed 30 Sept, 19:30 United States time

Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC prediction

Red Bull Arena

Red Bull New YorkHome
1.38 : 1.97
expected goals
St. Louis CITY SCAway
26%Red Bull NY
23%Draw
51%St. Louis
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
-478

Quick answer

Our prediction for Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC is St. Louis CITY SC to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -478.

Prediction
St. Louis CITY SC to win
Chance
51%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Red Bull New York 1.4, St. Louis CITY SC 2.0
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at -478
Both teams to score
65%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
83% chanceFair price -4782 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

St. Louis CITY SC to win and Over 2.5
35% chanceFair price +1861 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Red Bull New York 26%, the draw 23% and St. Louis CITY SC 51%. The bookmakers agree and make St. Louis CITY SC the favourite at -110.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Red Bull New York took 7 points from their last 5 games and St. Louis CITY SC took 11 from 5. St. Louis CITY SC come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Red Bull New York won 2 of their last 9 games at home. St. Louis CITY SC won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Red Bull New York score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.8. St. Louis CITY SC score 2.0 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Red Bull New York games and 13 of St. Louis CITY SC games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • St. Louisrecent form+6%
Red Bull NY form W W L D LSt. Louis form W W W D WHome edge in this league 27% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC: St. Louis CITY SC are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Red Bull New York host St. Louis CITY SC in the MLS on Wed 30 Sept, 19:30 at Red Bull Arena. Our prediction for Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC is St. Louis CITY SC to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -478.

Red Bull New York form

Red Bull New York have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, L, newest first.

St. Louis CITY SC form

St. Louis CITY SC have 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Red Bull New York to score about 1.4 goals and St. Louis CITY SC about 2.0. That points to St. Louis CITY SC to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at -478. Our bold bet is St. Louis CITY SC to win and Over 2.5 at +186.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Red Bull NYSt. Louis
Games played2020
Wins611
Draws56
Losses93
Goals scored2540
Goals conceded3528
Scored per game1.32.0
Conceded per game1.81.4
Home record2W 3D 4L7W 2D 1L
Away record4W 2D 5L4W 4D 2L
Clean sheets15%15%
Both teams scored60%80%
Over 2.5 goals50%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Red Bull New York to win25%+294+225-17.5%
A Draw22%+345+300-10.2%
St. Louis CITY SC to win48%+110-110-9.2%
Over 3.5 goals43%+133+100-14.2%
Under 3.5 goals51%-103-125-8.5%
Red Bull New York +0.547%+114-120-14.4%
St. Louis CITY SC -0.547%+112-120-13.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals85%-577
Over 2.5 goals65%-185
Over 3.5 goals43%+133
Both teams to score65%-185
Red Bull New York or Draw49%+103
St. Louis CITY SC or Draw74%-280
Red Bull New York to win and Over 2.519%+436
St. Louis CITY SC to win and Over 2.537%+167
Red Bull New York clean sheet14%+614
St. Louis CITY SC clean sheet25%+296

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.1%
1-29.4%
0-26.8%
2-16.6%
2-26.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC?

Our prediction for Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC is St. Louis CITY SC to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -478.

What is the score prediction for Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-2. We expect Red Bull New York to score 1.4 goals and St. Louis CITY SC 2.0.

Will both teams score in Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC?

Both teams to score has a 65% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Red Bull New York last 20 games and 16 of St. Louis CITY SC last 20.

How are Red Bull New York playing?

Red Bull New York have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, L, newest first.

How are St. Louis CITY SC playing?

St. Louis CITY SC have 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC?

Over 1.5 goals at -478, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Red Bull NY against St. Louis. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
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