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Predictions › United States › Red Bull New York vs Toronto FC
MLSSat 17 Oct, 19:30 United States time

Red Bull New York vs Toronto FC prediction

Sports Illustrated Stadium

Red Bull New YorkHome
1.40 : 1.18
expected goals
Toronto FCAway
41%Red Bull NY
28%Draw
31%Toronto
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
-299

Quick answer

Our prediction for Red Bull New York vs Toronto FC is Red Bull New York to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at -299.

Prediction
Red Bull New York to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Red Bull New York 1.4, Toronto FC 1.2
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at -299
Both teams to score
53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
75% chanceFair price -2991 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price +6541 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Red Bull New York 41%, the draw 28% and Toronto FC 31%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Red Bull New York took 7 points from their last 5 games and Toronto FC took 4 from 5. Red Bull New York come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Red Bull New York won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Toronto FC won 1 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Red Bull New York score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.8. Toronto FC score 1.4 and let in 2.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Red Bull New York games and 14 of Toronto FC games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Red Bull New York won 0 and Toronto FC won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Toronto FC 1, Red Bull New York 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Torontorecent form-3%
Red Bull NY form L W W L DToronto form L L L W DHome edge in this league 27% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Red Bull New York vs Toronto FC: Red Bull New York shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Red Bull New York host Toronto FC in the MLS on Sat 17 Oct, 19:30 at Sports Illustrated Stadium. Our prediction for Red Bull New York vs Toronto FC is Red Bull New York to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at -299.

Red Bull New York form

Red Bull New York have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 36 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Toronto FC form

Toronto FC have 3 wins, 9 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 40 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Red Bull New York won 0, Toronto FC won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Toronto FC 1, Red Bull New York 1.

Our call

We expect Red Bull New York to score about 1.4 goals and Toronto FC about 1.2. That points to Red Bull New York to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at -299. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at +654.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Red Bull NYToronto
Games played2020
Wins63
Draws49
Losses108
Goals scored2329
Goals conceded3640
Scored per game1.11.4
Conceded per game1.82.0
Home record2W 3D 5L2W 6D 2L
Away record4W 1D 5L1W 3D 6L
Clean sheets15%10%
Both teams scored55%80%
Over 2.5 goals50%70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals74%-280
Over 2.5 goals48%+110
Over 3.5 goals26%+284
Both teams to score53%-113
Red Bull New York or Draw69%-222
Toronto FC or Draw59%-143
Red Bull New York to win and Over 2.524%+317
Toronto FC to win and Over 2.518%+470
Red Bull New York clean sheet31%+226
Toronto FC clean sheet25%+306

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%
1-09.8%
2-18.8%
0-08.3%
0-18.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Red Bull New York vs Toronto FC?

Our prediction for Red Bull New York vs Toronto FC is Red Bull New York to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at -299.

What is the score prediction for Red Bull New York vs Toronto FC?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Red Bull New York to score 1.4 goals and Toronto FC 1.2.

Will both teams score in Red Bull New York vs Toronto FC?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Red Bull New York last 20 games and 16 of Toronto FC last 20.

How are Red Bull New York playing?

Red Bull New York have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 36 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, D, newest first.

How are Toronto FC playing?

Toronto FC have 3 wins, 9 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 40 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Red Bull New York and Toronto FC last met?

It ended Toronto FC 1, Red Bull New York 1. In the last 1 meeting Red Bull New York won 0 and Toronto FC won 0.

What is the best bet for Red Bull New York vs Toronto FC?

Under 3.5 goals at -299, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Red Bull NY against Toronto. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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