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BrasileiraoWed 7 Oct, 22:30 Brazil time

Remo vs Grêmio prediction

Mangueirão

RemoHome

1.44 : 1.15

expected goals

GrêmioAway

43%Remo

28%Draw

29%Grêmio

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.34

Quick answer

Our prediction for Remo vs Grêmio is Remo to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.34.

Prediction: Remo to win
Chance: 43%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Remo 1.4, Grêmio 1.1
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.34
Both teams to score: 53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1.341 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.601 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Remo 43%, the draw 28% and Grêmio 29%. The bookmakers agree and make Remo the favourite at 2.15.
2
Recent form
Remo took 0 points from their last 5 games and Grêmio took 4 from 5. Grêmio come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Remo won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Grêmio won 0 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Remo score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.6. Grêmio score 0.8 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Remo games and 9 of Grêmio games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Remo won 0 and Grêmio won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Grêmio 0, Remo 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Remorecent form-7%
Grêmiorecent form-3%

Remo form L L L L LGrêmio form D L L L WHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Remo vs Grêmio: Remo shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Remo host Grêmio in the Brasileirao on Wed 7 Oct, 22:30 at Mangueirão. Our prediction for Remo vs Grêmio is Remo to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.34.

Remo form

Remo have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Grêmio form

Grêmio have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Remo won 0, Grêmio won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Grêmio 0, Remo 0.

Our call

We expect Remo to score about 1.4 goals and Grêmio about 1.1. That points to Remo to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.34. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.60.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Remo	Grêmio
Games played	20	20
Wins	4	4
Draws	5	6
Losses	11	10
Goals scored	22	17
Goals conceded	32	26
Scored per game	1.1	0.8
Conceded per game	1.6	1.3
Home record	2W 3D 5L	4W 3D 3L
Away record	2W 2D 6L	0W 3D 7L
Clean sheets	15%	25%
Both teams scored	65%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Remo to win	40%	2.50	2.15	-14.0%
A Draw	27%	3.77	3.40	-9.7%
Grêmio to win	28%	3.56	3.05	-14.3%
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.15	1.80	-16.2%
Under 2.5 goals	47%	2.12	1.83	-13.5%
Remo -0.5	41%	2.45	2.05	-16.4%
Grêmio +0.5	53%	1.89	1.63	-13.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	74%	1.35
Over 2.5 goals	48%	2.09
Over 3.5 goals	26%	3.81
Both teams to score	53%	1.89
Remo or Draw	71%	1.41
Grêmio or Draw	57%	1.76
Remo to win and Over 2.5	25%	3.96
Grêmio to win and Over 2.5	17%	6.06
Remo clean sheet	32%	3.15
Grêmio clean sheet	24%	4.24

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.2%

1-010.1%

2-19.0%

0-08.2%

0-17.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Remo vs Grêmio?

Our prediction for Remo vs Grêmio is Remo to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.34.

What is the score prediction for Remo vs Grêmio?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Remo to score 1.4 goals and Grêmio 1.1.

Will both teams score in Remo vs Grêmio?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Remo last 20 games and 10 of Grêmio last 20.

How are Remo playing?

How are Grêmio playing?

What happened when Remo and Grêmio last met?

It ended Grêmio 0, Remo 0. In the last 1 meeting Remo won 0 and Grêmio won 0.

What is the best bet for Remo vs Grêmio?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.34, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Remo against Grêmio. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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