Predictions › Portugal › Rio Ave vs C.D. Nacional

Primeira LigaSun 11 Oct, 14:30 Portugal time

Rio Ave vs C.D. Nacional prediction

Estádio do Rio Ave

Rio AveHome

1.33 : 1.15

expected goals

C.D. NacionalAway

40%Rio Ave

29%Draw

31%Nacional

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Rio Ave vs C.D. Nacional is Rio Ave to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction: Rio Ave to win
Chance: 40%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Rio Ave 1.3, C.D. Nacional 1.1
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score: 51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.322 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.371 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Rio Ave 40%, the draw 29% and C.D. Nacional 31%. The bookmakers agree and make Rio Ave the favourite at 2.20.
2
Recent form
Rio Ave took 4 points from their last 5 games and C.D. Nacional took 0 from 5. Rio Ave come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Rio Ave won 1 of their last 10 games at home. C.D. Nacional won 1 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Rio Ave score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.6. C.D. Nacional score 0.8 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Rio Ave games and 7 of C.D. Nacional games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Rio Ave won 0 and C.D. Nacional won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended C.D. Nacional 4, Rio Ave 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Rio Averecent form-3%
Nacionalrecent form-7%

Rio Ave form L D L L WNacional form L L L L LHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Rio Ave vs C.D. Nacional: Rio Ave shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Rio Ave host C.D. Nacional in the Primeira Liga on Sun 11 Oct, 14:30 at Estádio do Rio Ave. Our prediction for Rio Ave vs C.D. Nacional is Rio Ave to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Rio Ave form

Rio Ave have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, L, W, newest first.

C.D. Nacional form

C.D. Nacional have 5 wins, 2 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Rio Ave won 0, C.D. Nacional won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished C.D. Nacional 4, Rio Ave 0.

Our call

We expect Rio Ave to score about 1.3 goals and C.D. Nacional about 1.1. That points to Rio Ave to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.37.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Rio Ave	Nacional
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	5
Draws	5	2
Losses	10	13
Goals scored	18	17
Goals conceded	31	30
Scored per game	0.9	0.8
Conceded per game	1.6	1.5
Home record	1W 4D 5L	4W 0D 7L
Away record	4W 1D 5L	1W 2D 6L
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Both teams scored	40%	30%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Rio Ave to win	38%	2.65	2.20	-17.1%
A Draw	28%	3.60	3.20	-11.1%
C.D. Nacional to win	30%	3.29	3.20	-2.7%
Over 2.5 goals	43%	2.33	2.00	-14.3%
Under 2.5 goals	51%	1.95	1.69	-13.4%
Rio Ave -0.5	40%	2.52	2.10	-16.5%
C.D. Nacional +0.5	54%	1.84	1.61	-12.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	72%	1.40
Over 2.5 goals	45%	2.22
Over 3.5 goals	24%	4.20
Both teams to score	51%	1.96
Rio Ave or Draw	69%	1.46
C.D. Nacional or Draw	60%	1.67
Rio Ave to win and Over 2.5	22%	4.49
C.D. Nacional to win and Over 2.5	17%	5.87
Rio Ave clean sheet	32%	3.16
C.D. Nacional clean sheet	26%	3.79

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.6%

1-010.4%

0-09.1%

0-18.8%

2-18.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Rio Ave vs C.D. Nacional?

Our prediction for Rio Ave vs C.D. Nacional is Rio Ave to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Rio Ave vs C.D. Nacional?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Rio Ave to score 1.3 goals and C.D. Nacional 1.1.

Will both teams score in Rio Ave vs C.D. Nacional?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Rio Ave last 20 games and 6 of C.D. Nacional last 20.

How are Rio Ave playing?

How are C.D. Nacional playing?

What happened when Rio Ave and C.D. Nacional last met?

It ended C.D. Nacional 4, Rio Ave 0. In the last 1 meeting Rio Ave won 0 and C.D. Nacional won 1.

What is the best bet for Rio Ave vs C.D. Nacional?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Rio Ave against Nacional. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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