Predictions › France › Rodez Aveyron vs Montpellier

Ligue 2Mon 19 Oct, 18:45 France time

Rodez Aveyron vs Montpellier prediction

Stade Paul-Lignon

Rodez AveyronHome

1.06 : 1.08

expected goals

MontpellierAway

34%Rodez Aveyron

31%Draw

35%Montpellier

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Rodez Aveyron vs Montpellier is Montpellier to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction: Montpellier to win
Chance: 35%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Rodez Aveyron 1.1, Montpellier 1.1
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score: 44%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

80% chanceFair price 1.252 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.011 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Rodez Aveyron 34%, the draw 31% and Montpellier 35%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Rodez Aveyron took 4 points from their last 5 games and Montpellier took 8 from 5. Montpellier come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Rodez Aveyron won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Montpellier won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Rodez Aveyron score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.3. Montpellier score 1.3 and let in 0.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Rodez Aveyron games and 6 of Montpellier games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Rodez Aveyron won 1 and Montpellier won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Rodez Aveyron 1, Montpellier 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Rodez Aveyronrecent form-3%
Montpellierrest between games-5%

Rodez Aveyron form L L L D WMontpellier form D D W L DHome edge in this league 10% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Rodez Aveyron vs Montpellier: Montpellier shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Rodez Aveyron host Montpellier in the Ligue 2 on Mon 19 Oct, 18:45 at Stade Paul-Lignon. Our prediction for Rodez Aveyron vs Montpellier is Montpellier to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

Rodez Aveyron form

Rodez Aveyron have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, W, newest first.

Montpellier form

Montpellier have 9 wins, 8 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 14 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Rodez Aveyron won 1, Montpellier won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Rodez Aveyron 1, Montpellier 0.

Our call

We expect Rodez Aveyron to score about 1.1 goals and Montpellier about 1.1. That points to Montpellier to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.01.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Rodez Aveyron	Montpellier
Games played	20	20
Wins	11	9
Draws	5	8
Losses	4	3
Goals scored	33	25
Goals conceded	26	14
Scored per game	1.6	1.3
Conceded per game	1.3	0.7
Home record	6W 2D 2L	5W 4D 1L
Away record	5W 3D 2L	4W 4D 2L
Clean sheets	20%	55%
Both teams scored	70%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	30%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	64%	1.56
Over 2.5 goals	36%	2.75
Over 3.5 goals	17%	5.86
Both teams to score	44%	2.27
Rodez Aveyron or Draw	65%	1.54
Montpellier or Draw	66%	1.51
Rodez Aveyron to win and Over 2.5	16%	6.38
Montpellier to win and Over 2.5	16%	6.15
Rodez Aveyron clean sheet	34%	2.96
Montpellier clean sheet	35%	2.90

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.3%

0-012.5%

0-111.9%

1-011.6%

1-27.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Rodez Aveyron vs Montpellier?

Our prediction for Rodez Aveyron vs Montpellier is Montpellier to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Rodez Aveyron vs Montpellier?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 0-1. We expect Rodez Aveyron to score 1.1 goals and Montpellier 1.1.

Will both teams score in Rodez Aveyron vs Montpellier?

Both teams to score has a 44% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Rodez Aveyron last 20 games and 8 of Montpellier last 20.

How are Rodez Aveyron playing?

How are Montpellier playing?

What happened when Rodez Aveyron and Montpellier last met?

It ended Rodez Aveyron 1, Montpellier 0. In the last 2 meetings Rodez Aveyron won 1 and Montpellier won 1.

What is the best bet for Rodez Aveyron vs Montpellier?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Rodez Aveyron against Montpellier. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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