Predictions › Argentina › Rosario Central vs Independiente Rivadavia

Argentina Liga ProfesionalSun 11 Oct, 20:00 Argentina time

Rosario Central vs Independiente Rivadavia prediction

Gigante de Arroyito

Rosario CentralHome

1.11 : 0.82

expected goals

Independiente RivadaviaAway

42%Rosario Central

33%Draw

26%Ind. Rivadavia

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for Rosario Central vs Independiente Rivadavia is Rosario Central to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18.

Prediction: Rosario Central to win
Chance: 42%
Most likely score: 1-0
Expected goals: Rosario Central 1.1, Independiente Rivadavia 0.8
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.18
Both teams to score: 38%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

85% chanceFair price 1.182 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0

15% chanceFair price 6.501 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Rosario Central 42%, the draw 33% and Independiente Rivadavia 26%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Rosario Central took 8 points from their last 5 games and Independiente Rivadavia took 10 from 5. Independiente Rivadavia come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Rosario Central won 6 of their last 11 games at home. Independiente Rivadavia won 3 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Rosario Central score 1.3 goals a game and let in 0.7. Independiente Rivadavia score 1.7 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Rosario Central games and 11 of Independiente Rivadavia games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Rosario Central won 0 and Independiente Rivadavia won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Independiente Rivadavia 2, Rosario Central 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Rosario Centralrecent form+3%
Ind. Rivadaviarecent form+1%

Rosario Central form W W W D LInd. Rivadavia form W L W L WHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Rosario Central vs Independiente Rivadavia: Rosario Central shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Rosario Central host Independiente Rivadavia in the Argentina Liga Profesional on Sun 11 Oct, 20:00 at Gigante de Arroyito. Our prediction for Rosario Central vs Independiente Rivadavia is Rosario Central to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18.

Rosario Central form

Rosario Central have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 14 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, L, D, newest first.

Independiente Rivadavia form

Independiente Rivadavia have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Rosario Central won 0, Independiente Rivadavia won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Independiente Rivadavia 2, Rosario Central 0.

Our call

We expect Rosario Central to score about 1.1 goals and Independiente Rivadavia about 0.8. That points to Rosario Central to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 6.50.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Rosario Central	Ind. Rivadavia
Games played	20	20
Wins	10	9
Draws	5	7
Losses	5	4
Goals scored	25	34
Goals conceded	14	23
Scored per game	1.3	1.7
Conceded per game	0.7	1.1
Home record	6W 4D 1L	6W 2D 1L
Away record	4W 1D 4L	3W 5D 3L
Clean sheets	45%	25%
Both teams scored	40%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	58%	1.72
Over 2.5 goals	30%	3.28
Over 3.5 goals	13%	7.65
Both teams to score	38%	2.61
Rosario Central or Draw	74%	1.35
Independiente Rivadavia or Draw	58%	1.71
Rosario Central to win and Over 2.5	17%	5.81
Independiente Rivadavia to win and Over 2.5	10%	10.08
Rosario Central clean sheet	44%	2.26
Independiente Rivadavia clean sheet	33%	3.05

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-015.4%

0-015.3%

1-114.0%

0-111.0%

2-09.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Rosario Central vs Independiente Rivadavia?

What is the score prediction for Rosario Central vs Independiente Rivadavia?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 1-1. We expect Rosario Central to score 1.1 goals and Independiente Rivadavia 0.8.

Will both teams score in Rosario Central vs Independiente Rivadavia?

Both teams to score has a 38% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Rosario Central last 20 games and 14 of Independiente Rivadavia last 20.

How are Rosario Central playing?

How are Independiente Rivadavia playing?

What happened when Rosario Central and Independiente Rivadavia last met?

It ended Independiente Rivadavia 2, Rosario Central 0. In the last 1 meeting Rosario Central won 0 and Independiente Rivadavia won 1.

What is the best bet for Rosario Central vs Independiente Rivadavia?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Rosario Central against Ind. Rivadavia. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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