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Predictions › United States › Sacramento State Hornets vs Bowling Green Falcons
College FootballSat 10 Oct, 12:00 United States time

Sacramento State Hornets vs Bowling Green Falcons prediction

Doyt L. Perry Stadium

Sacramento State HornetsAway
21.7 : 22.6
projected points
Bowling Green FalconsHome
51%Sacramento St
49%Bowling Green
Eagle safe pickBowling Green +9.5
-293

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sacramento State Hornets vs Bowling Green Falcons is Sacramento State Hornets to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project Sacramento State Hornets 21.7 and Bowling Green Falcons 22.6. Our best bet is Bowling Green +9.5 at -293.

Prediction
Sacramento State Hornets to win
Chance
51%
Projected score
Sacramento State Hornets 22, Bowling Green Falcons 23
Projected total
44.3 points
Best bet
Bowling Green +9.5 at -293

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Bowling Green +9.5
75% chanceFair price -2931 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Sacramento St to win
45% chanceFair price +1231 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Bowling Green Falcons 49% and Sacramento State Hornets 51%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Bowling Green Falcons won 1 of their last 5 and Sacramento State Hornets won 1 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Bowling Green Falcons won 2 of their last 7 games at home. Sacramento State Hornets won 3 of their last 6 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Bowling Green Falcons score 16.6 points a game and let in 28.2. Sacramento State Hornets score 31.5 and let in 27.9. Their recent games average 44.9 and 59.4 points in total.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Bowling Green +9.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sacramento State Hornets vs Bowling Green Falcons: Sacramento State Hornets shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Bowling Green Falcons host Sacramento State Hornets in the College Football on Sat 10 Oct, 12:00 at Doyt L. Perry Stadium. Our prediction for Sacramento State Hornets vs Bowling Green Falcons is Sacramento State Hornets to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project Sacramento State Hornets 21.7 and Bowling Green Falcons 22.6. Our best bet is Bowling Green +9.5 at -293.

Bowling Green Falcons form

Bowling Green Falcons have 3 wins and 11 losses in their last 14 games, with 233 points scored and 395 conceded. At home they have 2 wins and 5 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Sacramento State Hornets form

Sacramento State Hornets have 8 wins and 7 losses in their last 15 games, with 473 points scored and 418 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 3 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Sacramento State Hornets to score about 21.7 points and Bowling Green Falcons about 22.6. That points to Sacramento State Hornets to win. Our safest bet is Bowling Green +9.5 at -293. Our bold bet is Sacramento St to win at +123.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 15 games in all competitions.

Bowling GreenSacramento St
Games played1415
Wins38
Losses117
Points scored233473
Points conceded395418
Scored per game16.631.5
Conceded per game28.227.9
Home record2W 5L5W 4L
Away record1W 6L3W 3L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Bowling Green spreadCoversFair
Bowling Green -7.534%+195
Bowling Green -3.543%+130
Bowling Green -0.551%-103
Bowling Green +2.558%-140
Bowling Green +6.568%-209
Total pointsOverUnder
37.566%34%
41.557%43%
44.550%50%
47.542%58%
51.533%67%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Bowling Green +3.5 wins if Bowling Green win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Sacramento State Hornets vs Bowling Green Falcons?

Our prediction for Sacramento State Hornets vs Bowling Green Falcons is Sacramento State Hornets to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project Sacramento State Hornets 21.7 and Bowling Green Falcons 22.6. Our best bet is Bowling Green +9.5 at -293.

What is the projected score for Sacramento State Hornets vs Bowling Green Falcons?

We project Sacramento State Hornets 21.7 and Bowling Green Falcons 22.6, about 44.3 points in total.

How are Bowling Green Falcons playing?

Bowling Green Falcons have 3 wins and 11 losses in their last 14 games, with 233 points scored and 395 conceded. At home they have 2 wins and 5 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Sacramento State Hornets playing?

Sacramento State Hornets have 8 wins and 7 losses in their last 15 games, with 473 points scored and 418 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 3 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Sacramento State Hornets vs Bowling Green Falcons?

Bowling Green +9.5 at -293, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Bowling Green against Sacramento St. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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