Predictions › Italy › Sampdoria vs Benevento

Serie BSat 21 Nov, 14:00 Italy time

Sampdoria vs Benevento prediction

Stadio Luigi Ferraris

SampdoriaHome

1.22 : 1.21

expected goals

BeneventoAway

36%Sampdoria

29%Draw

35%Benevento

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sampdoria vs Benevento is Sampdoria to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction: Sampdoria to win
Chance: 36%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Sampdoria 1.2, Benevento 1.2
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score: 50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.292 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.261 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Sampdoria 36%, the draw 29% and Benevento 35%. The bookmakers agree and make Sampdoria the favourite at 2.60.
2
Recent form
Sampdoria took 7 points from their last 5 games and Benevento took 6 from 5. Sampdoria come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Sampdoria won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Benevento won 2 of their last 4 on the road.
4
Goals
Sampdoria score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.3. Benevento score 1.4 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Sampdoria games and 4 of Benevento games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Sampdoria form W W L D LBenevento form D L D W DHome edge in this league 28% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sampdoria vs Benevento: Sampdoria shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sampdoria host Benevento in the Serie B on Sat 21 Nov, 14:00 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. Our prediction for Sampdoria vs Benevento is Sampdoria to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29.

Sampdoria form

Sampdoria have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, L, newest first.

Benevento form

Benevento have 4 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in their last 11 games, with 15 goals scored and 11 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses from 4. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Sampdoria to score about 1.2 goals and Benevento about 1.2. That points to Sampdoria to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.26.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Sampdoria	Benevento
Games played	20	11
Wins	7	4
Draws	4	4
Losses	9	3
Goals scored	17	15
Goals conceded	26	11
Scored per game	0.8	1.4
Conceded per game	1.3	1.0
Home record	5W 1D 3L	2W 4D 1L
Away record	2W 3D 6L	2W 0D 2L
Clean sheets	30%	27%
Both teams scored	45%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	36%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Sampdoria to win	35%	2.86	2.60	-9.0%
A Draw	29%	3.50	3.15	-10.1%
Benevento to win	35%	2.90	2.65	-8.5%
Over 2.5 goals	44%	2.29	1.95	-14.7%
Under 2.5 goals	49%	2.03	1.74	-14.1%
Sampdoria -0.5	36%	2.76	2.40	-13.0%
Benevento +0.5	59%	1.69	1.46	-14.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	71%	1.42
Over 2.5 goals	44%	2.28
Over 3.5 goals	23%	4.38
Both teams to score	50%	1.99
Sampdoria or Draw	65%	1.54
Benevento or Draw	64%	1.56
Sampdoria to win and Over 2.5	19%	5.19
Benevento to win and Over 2.5	19%	5.27
Sampdoria clean sheet	30%	3.36
Benevento clean sheet	29%	3.39

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.8%

1-09.9%

0-19.9%

0-09.6%

2-17.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Sampdoria vs Benevento?

Our prediction for Sampdoria vs Benevento is Sampdoria to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Sampdoria vs Benevento?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-1. We expect Sampdoria to score 1.2 goals and Benevento 1.2.

Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Benevento?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Sampdoria last 20 games and 6 of Benevento last 11.

How are Sampdoria playing?

How are Benevento playing?

What is the best bet for Sampdoria vs Benevento?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.29, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sampdoria against Benevento. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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