Predictions › Argentina › San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys

Argentina Liga ProfesionalSat 24 Oct, 22:15 Argentina time

San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys prediction

Estadio Pedro Bidegain

San LorenzoHome

1.11 : 0.81

expected goals

Newell's Old BoysAway

42%San Lorenzo

33%Draw

26%Newell's

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys is San Lorenzo to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.17.

Prediction: San Lorenzo to win
Chance: 42%
Most likely score: 1-0
Expected goals: San Lorenzo 1.1, Newell's Old Boys 0.8
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.17
Both teams to score: 38%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

85% chanceFair price 1.172 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0

16% chanceFair price 6.451 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives San Lorenzo 42%, the draw 33% and Newell's Old Boys 26%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
San Lorenzo took 7 points from their last 5 games and Newell's Old Boys took 6 from 5. San Lorenzo come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
San Lorenzo won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Newell's Old Boys won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
San Lorenzo score 0.7 goals a game and let in 1.1. Newell's Old Boys score 1.1 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of San Lorenzo games and 6 of Newell's Old Boys games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, San Lorenzo won 0 and Newell's Old Boys won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Newell's Old Boys 0, San Lorenzo 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

San Lorenzo recent form-1%
Newell'srecent form+1%
Newell'srest between games-2%

San Lorenzo form D L L D WNewell's form D D W D DHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys: San Lorenzo shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

San Lorenzo host Newell's Old Boys in the Argentina Liga Profesional on Sat 24 Oct, 22:15 at Estadio Pedro Bidegain. Our prediction for San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys is San Lorenzo to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.17.

San Lorenzo form

San Lorenzo have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 13 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, W, newest first.

Newell's Old Boys form

Newell's Old Boys have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. San Lorenzo won 0, Newell's Old Boys won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Newell's Old Boys 0, San Lorenzo 0.

Our call

We expect San Lorenzo to score about 1.1 goals and Newell's Old Boys about 0.8. That points to San Lorenzo to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.17. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 6.45.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	San Lorenzo	Newell's
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	7
Draws	6	9
Losses	8	4
Goals scored	13	21
Goals conceded	21	20
Scored per game	0.7	1.1
Conceded per game	1.1	1.0
Home record	5W 1D 4L	4W 6D 0L
Away record	1W 5D 4L	3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets	45%	35%
Both teams scored	25%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	20%	30%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	58%	1.73
Over 2.5 goals	30%	3.32
Over 3.5 goals	13%	7.79
Both teams to score	38%	2.64
San Lorenzo or Draw	74%	1.34
Newell's Old Boys or Draw	58%	1.71
San Lorenzo to win and Over 2.5	17%	5.85
Newell's Old Boys to win and Over 2.5	10%	10.24
San Lorenzo clean sheet	45%	2.24
Newell's Old Boys clean sheet	33%	3.03

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-015.5%

0-015.5%

1-114.0%

0-111.1%

2-09.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys?

Our prediction for San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys is San Lorenzo to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 1-1. We expect San Lorenzo to score 1.1 goals and Newell's Old Boys 0.8.

Will both teams score in San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys?

Both teams to score has a 38% chance. Both sides scored in 5 of San Lorenzo last 20 games and 10 of Newell's Old Boys last 20.

How are San Lorenzo playing?

How are Newell's Old Boys playing?

What happened when San Lorenzo and Newell's Old Boys last met?

It ended Newell's Old Boys 0, San Lorenzo 0. In the last 1 meeting San Lorenzo won 0 and Newell's Old Boys won 0.

What is the best bet for San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.17, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in San Lorenzo against Newell's. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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