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Predictions › Norway › Sandefjord vs Lillestrom
EliteserienSun 18 Oct, 15:00 Norway time

Sandefjord vs Lillestrom prediction

Jotun Arena

SandefjordHome
1.07 : 0.79
expected goals
LillestromAway
41%Sandefjord
33%Draw
26%Lillestrom
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sandefjord vs Lillestrom is Sandefjord to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.17.

Prediction
Sandefjord to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
0-0
Expected goals
Sandefjord 1.1, Lillestrom 0.8
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.17
Both teams to score
37%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
85% chanceFair price 1.172 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 0-0
16% chanceFair price 6.161 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Sandefjord 41%, the draw 33% and Lillestrom 26%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Sandefjord took 8 points from their last 5 games and Lillestrom took 6 from 5. Sandefjord come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Sandefjord won 3 of their last 11 games at home. Lillestrom won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Sandefjord score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.3. Lillestrom score 1.3 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Sandefjord games and 11 of Lillestrom games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Sandefjord won 0 and Lillestrom won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Lillestrom 3, Sandefjord 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Sandefjordrecent form+1%
  • Lillestromrecent form-1%
Sandefjord form W L D D WLillestrom form L L W W LHome edge in this league 34% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Sandefjord vs Lillestrom: Sandefjord shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sandefjord host Lillestrom in the Eliteserien on Sun 18 Oct, 15:00 at Jotun Arena. Our prediction for Sandefjord vs Lillestrom is Sandefjord to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.17.

Sandefjord form

Sandefjord have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, W, newest first.

Lillestrom form

Lillestrom have 8 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Sandefjord won 0, Lillestrom won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Lillestrom 3, Sandefjord 1.

Our call

We expect Sandefjord to score about 1.1 goals and Lillestrom about 0.8. That points to Sandefjord to win, with 0-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.17. Our bold bet is Correct score 0-0 at 6.16.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

SandefjordLillestrom
Games played2020
Wins68
Draws52
Losses910
Goals scored2125
Goals conceded2630
Scored per game1.11.3
Conceded per game1.31.5
Home record3W 5D 3L5W 0D 6L
Away record3W 0D 6L3W 2D 4L
Clean sheets30%25%
Both teams scored50%45%
Over 2.5 goals50%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals56%1.77
Over 2.5 goals29%3.48
Over 3.5 goals12%8.34
Both teams to score37%2.71
Sandefjord or Draw74%1.35
Lillestrom or Draw59%1.69
Sandefjord to win and Over 2.516%6.19
Lillestrom to win and Over 2.510%10.52
Sandefjord clean sheet45%2.21
Lillestrom clean sheet34%2.93

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-016.2%
1-015.8%
1-114.0%
0-111.5%
2-08.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?

Our prediction for Sandefjord vs Lillestrom is Sandefjord to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?

0-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. We expect Sandefjord to score 1.1 goals and Lillestrom 0.8.

Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?

Both teams to score has a 37% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Sandefjord last 20 games and 9 of Lillestrom last 20.

How are Sandefjord playing?

Sandefjord have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, W, newest first.

How are Lillestrom playing?

Lillestrom have 8 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Sandefjord and Lillestrom last met?

It ended Lillestrom 3, Sandefjord 1. In the last 1 meeting Sandefjord won 0 and Lillestrom won 1.

What is the best bet for Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.17, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Sandefjord against Lillestrom. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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