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Predictions › Brazil › Santos vs Bahia
BrasileiraoSun 25 Oct, 00:00 Brazil time

Santos vs Bahia prediction

Estádio Vila Belmiro (Urbano Caldeira)

SantosHome
1.55 : 1.30
expected goals
BahiaAway
42%Santos
26%Draw
31%Bahia
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Santos vs Bahia is Santos to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
Santos to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Santos 1.6, Bahia 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Santos to win and Over 2.5
25% chanceFair price 3.931 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Santos 42%, the draw 26% and Bahia 31%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Santos took 10 points from their last 5 games and Bahia took 9 from 5. Santos come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Santos won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Bahia won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Santos score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.4. Bahia score 1.4 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Santos games and 10 of Bahia games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Santos won 0 and Bahia won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Bahia 2, Santos 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Santosrecent form+1%
Santos form D D W W LBahia form D L L W WHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Santos vs Bahia: Santos shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Santos host Bahia in the Brasileirao on Sun 25 Oct, 00:00 at Estádio Vila Belmiro (Urbano Caldeira). Our prediction for Santos vs Bahia is Santos to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Santos form

Santos have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, W, newest first.

Bahia form

Bahia have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Santos won 0, Bahia won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Bahia 2, Santos 2.

Our call

We expect Santos to score about 1.6 goals and Bahia about 1.3. That points to Santos to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Santos to win and Over 2.5 at 3.93.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

SantosBahia
Games played2020
Wins97
Draws58
Losses65
Goals scored3329
Goals conceded2926
Scored per game1.61.4
Conceded per game1.41.3
Home record4W 3D 3L5W 4D 1L
Away record5W 2D 3L2W 4D 4L
Clean sheets20%25%
Both teams scored70%65%
Over 2.5 goals70%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%1.27
Over 2.5 goals54%1.84
Over 3.5 goals32%3.12
Both teams to score58%1.72
Santos or Draw69%1.46
Bahia or Draw58%1.74
Santos to win and Over 2.527%3.67
Bahia to win and Over 2.520%5.08
Santos clean sheet27%3.68
Bahia clean sheet21%4.71

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.3%
2-19.0%
1-08.2%
1-27.6%
2-06.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Santos vs Bahia?

Our prediction for Santos vs Bahia is Santos to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Santos vs Bahia?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Santos to score 1.6 goals and Bahia 1.3.

Will both teams score in Santos vs Bahia?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Santos last 20 games and 13 of Bahia last 20.

How are Santos playing?

Santos have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, W, newest first.

How are Bahia playing?

Bahia have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Santos and Bahia last met?

It ended Bahia 2, Santos 2. In the last 1 meeting Santos won 0 and Bahia won 0.

What is the best bet for Santos vs Bahia?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Santos against Bahia. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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