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BrasileiraoThu 8 Oct, 22:30 Brazil time

Santos vs Flamengo prediction

Estádio Vila Belmiro (Urbano Caldeira)

SantosHome

1.08 : 1.75

expected goals

FlamengoAway

23%Santos

25%Draw

52%Flamengo

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Santos vs Flamengo is Flamengo to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction: Flamengo to win
Chance: 52%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Santos 1.1, Flamengo 1.8
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Flamengo to win and Over 2.5

32% chanceFair price 3.131 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Santos 23%, the draw 25% and Flamengo 52%. The bookmakers agree and make Flamengo the favourite at 1.80.
2
Recent form
Santos took 13 points from their last 5 games and Flamengo took 13 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Santos won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Flamengo won 4 of their last 8 on the road.
4
Goals
Santos score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.4. Flamengo score 1.9 and let in 0.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Santos games and 10 of Flamengo games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Santos won 0 and Flamengo won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Flamengo 3, Santos 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Santosrecent form+4%
Flamengorecent form+6%

Santos form W L W W WFlamengo form W D W W WHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Santos vs Flamengo: Flamengo are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Santos host Flamengo in the Brasileirao on Thu 8 Oct, 22:30 at Estádio Vila Belmiro (Urbano Caldeira). Our prediction for Santos vs Flamengo is Flamengo to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Santos form

Santos have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, D, newest first.

Flamengo form

Flamengo have 13 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 14 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 8. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Santos won 0, Flamengo won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Flamengo 3, Santos 1.

Our call

We expect Santos to score about 1.1 goals and Flamengo about 1.8. That points to Flamengo to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Flamengo to win and Over 2.5 at 3.13.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Santos	Flamengo
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	13
Draws	5	5
Losses	6	2
Goals scored	31	38
Goals conceded	27	14
Scored per game	1.6	1.9
Conceded per game	1.4	0.7
Home record	5W 2D 3L	9W 2D 1L
Away record	4W 3D 3L	4W 3D 1L
Clean sheets	30%	45%
Both teams scored	60%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Santos to win	22%	4.51	4.00	-11.3%
A Draw	24%	4.13	3.60	-12.8%
Flamengo to win	49%	2.03	1.80	-11.3%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	1.99	1.71	-13.8%
Under 2.5 goals	43%	2.30	1.95	-15.1%
Santos +0.5	45%	2.24	1.91	-14.9%
Flamengo -0.5	49%	2.03	1.74	-14.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	78%	1.28
Over 2.5 goals	54%	1.86
Over 3.5 goals	31%	3.18
Both teams to score	55%	1.81
Santos or Draw	48%	2.10
Flamengo or Draw	77%	1.29
Santos to win and Over 2.5	14%	7.38
Flamengo to win and Over 2.5	34%	2.97
Santos clean sheet	17%	5.75
Flamengo clean sheet	34%	2.94

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.8%

1-29.8%

0-19.7%

0-29.0%

0-06.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Santos vs Flamengo?

Our prediction for Santos vs Flamengo is Flamengo to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Santos vs Flamengo?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Santos to score 1.1 goals and Flamengo 1.8.

Will both teams score in Santos vs Flamengo?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Santos last 20 games and 10 of Flamengo last 20.

How are Santos playing?

How are Flamengo playing?

What happened when Santos and Flamengo last met?

It ended Flamengo 3, Santos 1. In the last 2 meetings Santos won 0 and Flamengo won 2.

What is the best bet for Santos vs Flamengo?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Santos against Flamengo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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