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Predictions › Brazil › Santos vs Palmeiras
BrasileiraoWed 28 Oct, 22:30 Brazil time

Santos vs Palmeiras prediction

Estádio Vila Belmiro (Urbano Caldeira)

SantosHome
0.92 : 1.56
expected goals
PalmeirasAway
22%Santos
27%Draw
52%Palmeiras
Eagle safe pickPalmeiras or Draw
1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Santos vs Palmeiras is Palmeiras to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.28.

Prediction
Palmeiras to win
Chance
52%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Santos 0.9, Palmeiras 1.6
Best bet
Palmeiras or Draw at 1.28
Both teams to score
48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Palmeiras or Draw
78% chanceFair price 1.282 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Palmeiras to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 3.581 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Santos 22%, the draw 27% and Palmeiras 52%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Santos took 10 points from their last 5 games and Palmeiras took 13 from 5. Palmeiras come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Santos won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Palmeiras won 5 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Santos score 1.7 goals a game and let in 1.5. Palmeiras score 1.8 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of Santos games and 9 of Palmeiras games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Santos won 1 and Palmeiras won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Palmeiras 1, Santos 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Palmeiras or Draw has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Santosrecent form+1%
  • Palmeirasrecent form+4%
  • Santosrest between games-5%
  • Palmeirasrest between games-5%
Santos form D L D W WPalmeiras form D W W W DHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Santos vs Palmeiras: Palmeiras are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Santos host Palmeiras in the Brasileirao on Wed 28 Oct, 22:30 at Estádio Vila Belmiro (Urbano Caldeira). Our prediction for Santos vs Palmeiras is Palmeiras to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.28.

Santos form

Santos have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, W, newest first.

Palmeiras form

Palmeiras have 12 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 15 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Santos won 1, Palmeiras won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Palmeiras 1, Santos 1.

Our call

We expect Santos to score about 0.9 goals and Palmeiras about 1.6. That points to Palmeiras to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.28. Our bold bet is Palmeiras to win and Over 2.5 at 3.58.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

SantosPalmeiras
Games played2020
Wins912
Draws55
Losses63
Goals scored3436
Goals conceded3015
Scored per game1.71.8
Conceded per game1.50.8
Home record3W 3D 3L7W 2D 1L
Away record6W 2D 3L5W 3D 2L
Clean sheets15%50%
Both teams scored75%50%
Over 2.5 goals75%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals72%1.39
Over 2.5 goals45%2.21
Over 3.5 goals24%4.18
Both teams to score48%2.07
Santos or Draw48%2.07
Palmeiras or Draw78%1.27
Santos to win and Over 2.511%9.08
Palmeiras to win and Over 2.529%3.43
Santos clean sheet21%4.78
Palmeiras clean sheet40%2.51

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.7%
0-112.3%
0-210.2%
1-29.4%
0-09.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Santos vs Palmeiras?

Our prediction for Santos vs Palmeiras is Palmeiras to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Santos vs Palmeiras?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-2. We expect Santos to score 0.9 goals and Palmeiras 1.6.

Will both teams score in Santos vs Palmeiras?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Santos last 20 games and 10 of Palmeiras last 20.

How are Santos playing?

Santos have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, W, newest first.

How are Palmeiras playing?

Palmeiras have 12 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 15 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Santos and Palmeiras last met?

It ended Palmeiras 1, Santos 1. In the last 3 meetings Santos won 1 and Palmeiras won 1.

What is the best bet for Santos vs Palmeiras?

Palmeiras or Draw at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Santos against Palmeiras. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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