Predictions › Mexico › Santos vs León

Liga MXSat 21 Nov, 23:00 Mexico time

Santos vs León prediction

Estadio Corona

SantosHome

1.61 : 0.64

expected goals

LeónAway

60%Santos

26%Draw

14%León

Eagle safe pickSantos or Draw

1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for Santos vs León is Santos to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Santos or Draw at 1.17.

Prediction: Santos to win
Chance: 60%
Most likely score: 1-0
Expected goals: Santos 1.6, León 0.6
Best bet: Santos or Draw at 1.17
Both teams to score: 39%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Santos or Draw

86% chanceFair price 1.172 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Santos to win and Over 2.5

30% chanceFair price 3.331 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Santos 60%, the draw 26% and León 14%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Santos took 12 points from their last 5 games and León took 5 from 5. Santos come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Santos won 6 of their last 10 games at home. León won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Santos score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. León score 1.5 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Santos games and 9 of León games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Santos won 1 and León won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended León 2, Santos 1.
6
The safest bet
Santos or Draw has a 86% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Santosrecent form+4%
Leónrecent form-1%
Leónrest between games-2%

Santos form W W L W WLeón form D L D W LHome edge in this league 28% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Santos vs León: Santos are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Santos host León in the Liga MX on Sat 21 Nov, 23:00 at Estadio Corona. Our prediction for Santos vs León is Santos to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Santos or Draw at 1.17.

Santos form

Santos have 9 wins, 1 draw and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

León form

León have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Santos won 1, León won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished León 2, Santos 1.

Our call

We expect Santos to score about 1.6 goals and León about 0.6. That points to Santos to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Santos or Draw at 1.17. Our bold bet is Santos to win and Over 2.5 at 3.33.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Santos	León
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	8
Draws	1	5
Losses	10	7
Goals scored	28	30
Goals conceded	27	29
Scored per game	1.4	1.5
Conceded per game	1.4	1.4
Home record	6W 1D 3L	5W 2D 3L
Away record	3W 0D 7L	3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets	35%	25%
Both teams scored	35%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	67%	1.50
Over 2.5 goals	39%	2.54
Over 3.5 goals	19%	5.20
Both teams to score	39%	2.58
Santos or Draw	86%	1.16
León or Draw	40%	2.52
Santos to win and Over 2.5	30%	3.29
León to win and Over 2.5	6%	17.48
Santos clean sheet	53%	1.90
León clean sheet	20%	5.03

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-016.2%

2-013.6%

1-111.5%

0-011.1%

2-18.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Santos vs León?

Our prediction for Santos vs León is Santos to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Santos or Draw at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for Santos vs León?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect Santos to score 1.6 goals and León 0.6.

Will both teams score in Santos vs León?

Both teams to score has a 39% chance. Both sides scored in 7 of Santos last 20 games and 14 of León last 20.

How are Santos playing?

How are León playing?

What happened when Santos and León last met?

It ended León 2, Santos 1. In the last 2 meetings Santos won 1 and León won 1.

What is the best bet for Santos vs León?

Santos or Draw at 1.17, with a 86% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Santos against León. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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