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Predictions › Mexico › Santos vs Necaxa
Liga MXSun 1 Nov, 23:00 Mexico time

Santos vs Necaxa prediction

Estadio Corona

SantosHome
1.93 : 0.79
expected goals
NecaxaAway
64%Santos
22%Draw
14%Necaxa
Eagle safe pickSantos or Draw
1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for Santos vs Necaxa is Santos to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Santos or Draw at 1.17.

Prediction
Santos to win
Chance
64%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
Santos 1.9, Necaxa 0.8
Best bet
Santos or Draw at 1.17
Both teams to score
47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Santos or Draw
85% chanceFair price 1.172 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Santos to win and Over 2.5
39% chanceFair price 2.561 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Santos 64%, the draw 22% and Necaxa 14%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Santos took 15 points from their last 5 games and Necaxa took 1 from 5. Santos come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Santos won 6 of their last 11 games at home. Necaxa won 0 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Santos score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Necaxa score 1.1 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Santos games and 12 of Necaxa games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Santos won 0 and Necaxa won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Santos 1, Necaxa 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Santos or Draw has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Santosrecent form+6%
  • Necaxarecent form-4%
  • Santosrest between games-5%
  • Necaxarest between games-5%
Santos form D W W W WNecaxa form D L D L LHome edge in this league 30% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Santos vs Necaxa: Santos are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Santos host Necaxa in the Liga MX on Sun 1 Nov, 23:00 at Estadio Corona. Our prediction for Santos vs Necaxa is Santos to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Santos or Draw at 1.17.

Santos form

Santos have 8 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Necaxa form

Necaxa have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Santos won 0, Necaxa won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Santos 1, Necaxa 3.

Our call

We expect Santos to score about 1.9 goals and Necaxa about 0.8. That points to Santos to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Santos or Draw at 1.17. Our bold bet is Santos to win and Over 2.5 at 2.56.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

SantosNecaxa
Games played2020
Wins84
Draws26
Losses1010
Goals scored2723
Goals conceded2835
Scored per game1.41.1
Conceded per game1.41.8
Home record6W 2D 3L4W 2D 5L
Away record2W 0D 7L0W 4D 5L
Clean sheets25%15%
Both teams scored40%70%
Over 2.5 goals55%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals76%1.31
Over 2.5 goals51%1.96
Over 3.5 goals29%3.44
Both teams to score47%2.11
Santos or Draw86%1.16
Necaxa or Draw36%2.74
Santos to win and Over 2.539%2.55
Necaxa to win and Over 2.57%13.57
Santos clean sheet45%2.21
Necaxa clean sheet15%6.88

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-012.2%
1-012.1%
1-110.7%
2-19.7%
3-07.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Santos vs Necaxa?

Our prediction for Santos vs Necaxa is Santos to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Santos or Draw at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for Santos vs Necaxa?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. We expect Santos to score 1.9 goals and Necaxa 0.8.

Will both teams score in Santos vs Necaxa?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Santos last 20 games and 14 of Necaxa last 20.

How are Santos playing?

Santos have 8 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

How are Necaxa playing?

Necaxa have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Santos and Necaxa last met?

It ended Santos 1, Necaxa 3. In the last 2 meetings Santos won 0 and Necaxa won 2.

What is the best bet for Santos vs Necaxa?

Santos or Draw at 1.17, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Santos against Necaxa. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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