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Predictions › Mexico › Santos vs Pumas UNAM
Liga MXThu 22 Oct, 03:00 Mexico time

Santos vs Pumas UNAM prediction

Estadio Corona

SantosHome
1.11 : 1.10
expected goals
Pumas UNAMAway
35%Santos
31%Draw
35%UNAM
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for Santos vs Pumas UNAM is Santos to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

Prediction
Santos to win
Chance
35%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Santos 1.1, Pumas UNAM 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.26
Both teams to score
45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1.262 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.041 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Santos 35%, the draw 31% and Pumas UNAM 35%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Santos took 12 points from their last 5 games and Pumas UNAM took 5 from 5. Santos come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Santos won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Pumas UNAM won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Santos score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.6. Pumas UNAM score 1.6 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Santos games and 11 of Pumas UNAM games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Santos won 0 and Pumas UNAM won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Pumas UNAM 4, Santos 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Santosrecent form+3%
  • UNAMrecent form-1%
  • Santosrest between games-5%
  • UNAMrest between games-5%
Santos form D W W W LUNAM form D L D L WHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Santos vs Pumas UNAM: Santos shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Santos host Pumas UNAM in the Liga MX on Thu 22 Oct, 03:00 at Estadio Corona. Our prediction for Santos vs Pumas UNAM is Santos to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

Santos form

Santos have 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Pumas UNAM form

Pumas UNAM have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Santos won 0, Pumas UNAM won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Pumas UNAM 4, Santos 0.

Our call

We expect Santos to score about 1.1 goals and Pumas UNAM about 1.1. That points to Santos to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.04.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

SantosUNAM
Games played2020
Wins77
Draws27
Losses116
Goals scored2333
Goals conceded3130
Scored per game1.11.6
Conceded per game1.61.5
Home record4W 2D 4L3W 4D 3L
Away record3W 0D 7L4W 3D 3L
Clean sheets15%25%
Both teams scored50%55%
Over 2.5 goals60%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals66%1.53
Over 2.5 goals38%2.64
Over 3.5 goals18%5.49
Both teams to score45%2.20
Santos or Draw65%1.53
Pumas UNAM or Draw65%1.53
Santos to win and Over 2.517%5.99
Pumas UNAM to win and Over 2.517%6.03
Santos clean sheet33%3.01
Pumas UNAM clean sheet33%3.02

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.2%
0-011.8%
1-011.4%
0-111.3%
2-17.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Santos vs Pumas UNAM?

Our prediction for Santos vs Pumas UNAM is Santos to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for Santos vs Pumas UNAM?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 1-0. We expect Santos to score 1.1 goals and Pumas UNAM 1.1.

Will both teams score in Santos vs Pumas UNAM?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Santos last 20 games and 11 of Pumas UNAM last 20.

How are Santos playing?

Santos have 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Pumas UNAM playing?

Pumas UNAM have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Santos and Pumas UNAM last met?

It ended Pumas UNAM 4, Santos 0. In the last 1 meeting Santos won 0 and Pumas UNAM won 1.

What is the best bet for Santos vs Pumas UNAM?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.26, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Santos against UNAM. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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