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Predictions › Brazil › São Paulo vs Corinthians
BrasileiraoThu 5 Nov, 00:30 Brazil time

São Paulo vs Corinthians prediction

Estádio Vila Belmiro (Urbano Caldeira)

São PauloHome
1.65 : 0.85
expected goals
CorinthiansAway
56%São Paulo
26%Draw
19%Corinthians
Eagle safe pickSão Paulo or Draw
1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for São Paulo vs Corinthians is São Paulo to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is São Paulo or Draw at 1.23.

Prediction
São Paulo to win
Chance
56%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
São Paulo 1.6, Corinthians 0.8
Best bet
São Paulo or Draw at 1.23
Both teams to score
47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

São Paulo or Draw
82% chanceFair price 1.232 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

São Paulo to win and Over 2.5
30% chanceFair price 3.301 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives São Paulo 56%, the draw 26% and Corinthians 19%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    São Paulo took 7 points from their last 5 games and Corinthians took 1 from 5. São Paulo come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    São Paulo won 6 of their last 11 games at home. Corinthians won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    São Paulo score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.3. Corinthians score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of São Paulo games and 10 of Corinthians games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, São Paulo won 0 and Corinthians won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Corinthians 3, São Paulo 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    São Paulo or Draw has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Corinthiansrecent form-4%
  • São Paulorest between games-5%
  • Corinthiansrest between games-5%
São Paulo form D W W L LCorinthians form D D L L LHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

São Paulo vs Corinthians: São Paulo are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

São Paulo host Corinthians in the Brasileirao on Thu 5 Nov, 00:30 at Estádio Vila Belmiro (Urbano Caldeira). Our prediction for São Paulo vs Corinthians is São Paulo to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is São Paulo or Draw at 1.23.

São Paulo form

São Paulo have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Corinthians form

Corinthians have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. São Paulo won 0, Corinthians won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Corinthians 3, São Paulo 2.

Our call

We expect São Paulo to score about 1.6 goals and Corinthians about 0.8. That points to São Paulo to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is São Paulo or Draw at 1.23. Our bold bet is São Paulo to win and Over 2.5 at 3.30.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

São PauloCorinthians
Games played2020
Wins64
Draws55
Losses911
Goals scored2121
Goals conceded2528
Scored per game1.11.1
Conceded per game1.31.4
Home record6W 3D 2L2W 2D 6L
Away record0W 2D 7L2W 3D 5L
Clean sheets20%25%
Both teams scored60%60%
Over 2.5 goals40%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals72%1.39
Over 2.5 goals46%2.19
Over 3.5 goals24%4.13
Both teams to score47%2.13
São Paulo or Draw82%1.23
Corinthians or Draw44%2.26
São Paulo to win and Over 2.532%3.16
Corinthians to win and Over 2.59%10.81
São Paulo clean sheet43%2.33
Corinthians clean sheet19%5.21

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-012.9%
1-112.2%
2-011.2%
2-19.5%
0-08.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win São Paulo vs Corinthians?

Our prediction for São Paulo vs Corinthians is São Paulo to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is São Paulo or Draw at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for São Paulo vs Corinthians?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect São Paulo to score 1.6 goals and Corinthians 0.8.

Will both teams score in São Paulo vs Corinthians?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of São Paulo last 20 games and 12 of Corinthians last 20.

How are São Paulo playing?

São Paulo have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, L, newest first.

How are Corinthians playing?

Corinthians have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when São Paulo and Corinthians last met?

It ended Corinthians 3, São Paulo 2. In the last 2 meetings São Paulo won 0 and Corinthians won 2.

What is the best bet for São Paulo vs Corinthians?

São Paulo or Draw at 1.23, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in São Paulo against Corinthians. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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